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The oil sector is about to take off.
In four days, the Strait of Hormuz will have been closed throughout March and April.
This week’s inventory data (due Wednesday) will likely show record drawdowns, providing the first clear, quantitative signal of how quickly stocks are being depleted under the current supply shock, and how long it may take to rebuild them to levels well above those seen before the war.
So far, the market appears to be underestimating both the speed of the drawdown and the scale and duration of the recovery. Replenishing these inventories will take considerably longer, especially since they must be restored to higher-than-previous levels.