Celebration or诱多 before the halving? #Halving

1. News overview: Countdown to halving and macro data double pressure
Key events:

Halving countdown (neutral slightly bearish): Only about 7-10 days left until the halving, the market enters a historically “volatile period,” large investors tend to quickly clear profit-taking positions before positive news is realized.

Macro data (balanced): The US announced CPI data today (April 13), market expectations of 0.3% growth. If higher than expected, it will intensify concerns about sustained high interest rates, putting short-term selling pressure on risk assets.

Big investor movements (bullish): On-chain data shows that medium-sized accumulation addresses (10-100 BTC) have increased holdings by 2,340 BTC in the past 72 hours, indicating mid-term investors are bottom-fishing around 71,000.

Summary of impact: The market is currently in wide-range oscillation, lacking momentum for a unilateral breakout, retail sentiment leans toward fear, while institutional funds are showing “defensive accumulation.”

2. Technical analysis: High-level range-bound oscillation, indicator signals enter dormancy
Current price: about 71,174

Moving average system (MA):

MA(120) (green line): Currently around 72,347, a price drop below this indicates a pause in the short-term bullish trend, shifting to oscillation and correction.

Cluster of moving averages contracting: Short-term MAs (MA24/MA52) are beginning to coil around 71,800, indicating a potential trend reversal window approaching.

Indicator analysis:

TD sequence: Figure 7 shows a TD 9 top signal near 73,799, followed by a pullback, currently at the end of the correction cycle.

Pattern: 1-hour chart shows a clear “double head decline” pattern, neckline support at 70,422.

Key levels:

Strong support: 71,000 (psychological level), 70,422 (previous low).

Short-term resistance: 72,347 (MA120), 73,800 (previous high).

3. Trading strategy: Focus on low-range buying, strictly control leverage
Operational suggestions:

No position: Wait for CPI data to be released. Ideal entry points are between 70,500 and 71,000, with a stop loss at 69,800.

Hold low-position long positions (below 70,000): Consider partial profit-taking around 71,800, locking in 50% gains, to guard against secondary dips caused by news.

Hold trapped positions at high levels: Currently, do not cut losses below 71,000. Indicators are approaching oversold, so wait for a rebound near 72,200 to close positions.

Position management:

Recommend maintaining low leverage, strictly avoid heavy positions or stop-lossless operations before the halving, to prevent sudden “pinning” above 2,000 points.

4. Risk warnings and response plans
Risk point one: CPI exceeding expectations triggers a sharp decline. If macro data is negative, BTC could instantly break below the 70,000 psychological support.

Response: Set automatic stop-loss in advance, avoid manual operations during high volatility.

Risk point two: “Leverage washout” before the halving. Exchanges may use insufficient depth to quickly shake out traders.