OilEdgesHigher – Full Market Breakdown

Crude oil futures extended gains for a third straight session on Friday, driven by tightening supply fundamentals and renewed geopolitical risks. Below is a detailed look at the numbers and drivers.

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📈 Price Action (as of 12 April 2026, 14:30 GMT)

Benchmark Price Change (24h) YTD Change
Brent Crude (June) $89.72/bbl +0.65% (+$0.58) +13.2%
WTI Crude (May) $85.43/bbl +0.72% (+$0.61) +14.1%

· Session high/low (Brent): $90.15 / $89.10
· Open interest: +12% vs 30-day average (institutional buying noted)

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🛢️ Supply-Side Data

1. US inventory draw (EIA weekly report):
· Crude stocks: -4.9M barrels (forecast: -1.2M)
· Cushing, OK storage: -2.1M barrels (lowest since Oct 2024)
· SPR: unchanged at 395M barrels
2. OPEC+ compliance (March estimate):
· Total output: 41.2M b/d (target: 40.8M b/d)
· Russia, Iraq, Kazakhstan overproducing slightly but pledge deeper cuts in April
3. Russian crude exports (April 1-11):
· Down 9% month-on-month due to drone attacks on refineries and ports
· Urals discount to Brent narrows to $11.20 (from $14.50 in March)

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🔥 Geopolitical Risk Premium

· Middle East: Houthi attacks on two tankers near Bab el-Mandeb; no casualties but shipping insurers raised premiums by 15%
· Iran-Israel shadow war: Suspected Israeli airstrike on Iranian oil convoy in Syria – Tehran vows retaliation
· US sanctions enforcement: Treasury blacklisted 3 tankers carrying Iranian crude to China; 8 more under review

Risk models (Reuters, S&P) now embed a **$5–7/bbl geopolitical premium** – up from $3/bbl last month.

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📊 Demand Indicators

Region Data Point Value Implication
US Gasoline demand (4-week avg) 9.12M b/d +2.3% YoY
China March crude imports 11.4M b/d Highest since Nov 2024
India Refinery runs 105% of capacity Strong diesel export
Global Jet fuel demand (IATA) +6.8% YoY Summer travel peak early

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📉 Curve & Positioning

· Brent forward spread (M1-M2): $0.85 backwardation (bullish, up from $0.40 last week)
· Money managers net long (ICE Brent): 285,000 contracts – highest since October 2024
· Put/call ratio for WTI: 0.68 (skew toward calls, market pricing upside)

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🧠 Near-term Outlook (next 2 weeks)

· Bullish case ($92–95 Brent): Any escalation in Strait of Hormuz or deeper OPEC+ cut announcement
· Base case ($87–91 Brent): Current tight supply + seasonal demand, no major disruption
· Bearish case ($82–86): US SPR release (White House hinted at 15M barrels) or China demand slowdown

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⚠️ Key events to watch

· April 15: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (online)
· April 17: EIA weekly crude storage + Fed Beige Book
· April 20: G7 energy ministers meeting (price cap discussion)

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#OOTT #EnergyMarkets #CrudeOil #Commodities