I just reviewed the charts and Bitcoin is being rejected exactly where everyone expected. It recently rose to $74,000, but now it’s hovering around $71,470 after giving up nearly a third of its gains. The interesting part is where exactly it stops: the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement aligns perfectly with the 50-day moving average, creating a technically congested zone that acts as a magnet for sellers.

Alexander Kuptsikevich from FxPro is right in saying this looks more like a short squeeze than a true reversal of the downtrend. The bears who placed tight stops were liquidated during the rally, but the bulls still haven't convinced anyone that the bear market is over. Data from Bitunix shows long liquidations concentrated just around $70,000, with the next critical support at $64,000. It’s a well-defined range.

Weekly numbers still look decent on paper: Bitcoin +6.41%, Ethereum +7.51%, Solana +2.07%. But Dogecoin is flat (-0.30%) and XRP is barely moving (+1.07%), so it’s not a uniform rally. The real problem is the macroeconomic context. The war in Iran has Asian markets in the red, the dollar is strong, oil is soaring. These are not conditions that typically support a crypto rebound.

The Fibonacci retracement at $74,000 was the test of fire. If Bitcoin loses the $70,000 level, we’re back to playing with the $64,000 level. For now, that support is the line to watch.