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Here are the main points of today's situation forecast:
Operational Status: Although reports indicate that the situation is beginning to calm, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still predicted to remain low and selective. Iran continues to tightly control access and enforce special security protocols, including requiring passing ships to follow local authority rules.
Energy Market Sentiment: Global oil prices remain highly sensitive to negotiation outcomes between the United States and Iran. If talks in Pakistan today reach an impasse, there is a risk of energy price spikes due to concerns over a longer blockade.
Negotiation Factors: Fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz is one of the main points on the peace negotiation agenda in Islamabad. However, Iran is reportedly demanding heavy concessions, including war compensation and recognition of sovereignty over the route, which the US finds difficult to accept.
New Policy: Iran has begun introducing a "new phase" in strait management, including reports of implementing tariffs in the form of #GateSqua$50KRedPacketGiveaway Bitcoin( cryptocurrencies for ships passing through as a strategy to avoid international sanctions.
Overall, the Strait of Hormuz is expected to remain on high alert today. Certainty regarding the normal reopening of this route heavily depends on the results of a secret meeting between Iranian and US delegations scheduled to take place this afternoon WIB. )