Institution: The resilience of the global economy to oil shocks has increased

Mars Finance reports that on April 11, Bank of America’s research note on April 10 pointed out that since the 1970s, the world’s dependence on oil has gradually decreased: today, the amount of oil needed to produce the same scale of GDP is only one-third of that in the 1970s. The OPEC crisis and subsequent oil shocks were once seen as severe stagflation shocks. But now, the economy is more resilient to energy shocks of similar magnitude.
A research report from Huatai Securities noted that since March, geopolitical tensions have impacted global risk appetite, but gold has not performed as a safe haven as expected; instead, it has moved in tandem with risk assets. Since the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict in March, the maximum drawdown once exceeded 17%, but it rebounded at the bottom due to signs of easing in the situation. The institution believes that the reasons for this round of gold adjustment include crowded positions in the previous period, liquidity shocks, some central banks selling gold, and capital diversion from energy commodities.