Middle East Situation Tracking (April 11)

U.S.-Israel-Iran Conflict:
① Iran
1. Iran warns that it will respond strongly to ongoing attacks on Lebanon.
2. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reiterates that it has not attacked any country since the ceasefire.
3. Iran: If there is no agreement and the fighting reignites, it will strike U.S. and Israeli interests in the Middle East.
4. Iranian parliamentary official: Israel’s oil tanker is “absolutely prohibited” from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
5. A senior Iranian source says that, due to Iran’s insistence and pressure, the Israeli side has been forced to stop attacks on Beirut.
6. Iran’s Speaker of Parliament: If the U.S. attempts to use this negotiation as a show, Iran is ready to defend its own rights.
7. Iran’s armed forces: Because the U.S. and Israel have repeatedly broken their promises in the past, the armed forces still remain on full alert and are ready to open fire at any time.
② United States
1. The U.S. says its diplomats were “ambushed” in Iraq on the 8th.
2. The U.S. negotiating representatives will demand that Iran release the detained U.S. citizens.
3. A White House official says Trump is optimistic about reaching an agreement with Iran.
4. U.S. media: With U.S.-Iran negotiations imminent, U.S. forces continue to increase troop deployments in the Middle East, preparing for possible future military actions.
5. Trump: Besides the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has already “no other cards”; the Strait of Hormuz will be “opened soon.”
6. Trump says that if an agreement is not reached, military strikes against Iran will be stepped up; the outcome of talks with Iran will become clear within 24 hours.
7. Hassett, director of the White House Economic Committee: A contingency plan to open the Strait of Hormuz has been drawn up, and it is expected that the strait can be opened within two months.
8. White House officials say that uncertainty within the White House still remains, and Trump currently believes the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to reopen in the short term.
③ Israel
1. Israeli airstrikes on a government building in southern Lebanon resulted in the deaths of 13 security personnel.
2. Israeli media, citing senior officials, say there is a possibility of dismantling Hezbollah, but it will take weeks or even months.
3. Israeli media: Israel has made preparations to deal with the possible breakdown of U.S.-Iran talks and the re-eruption of conflict between the two sides.
4. Israel Defense Forces: Since operations against the Hezbollah terrorist organization began, more than 200 missile launchers have been dismantled, and hundreds of Hezbollah artillery personnel have been targeted and eliminated.
④ Other Developments
1. Spain calls on EU member states to suspend agreements on establishing ties with Israel.
2. The UK will convene an international meeting again to discuss how to “free” navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
⑤ Strait of Hormuz
1. In the past 24 hours, only 4 ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
2. An Iranian official says the Strait of Hormuz has still remained closed over the past two days.
3. Shipping operation data shows that a Russian oil tanker successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz.
4. An Israeli intelligence officer says Iran is charging fees to ships that are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
5. Shipping intelligence firm Kpler: On April 9, the number of ships passing through the Strait increased to nine per day, up from five the previous day, but it is still far below the level of broader normalization.
⑤ Ceasefire Negotiations
1. Lebanese presidential palace: Lebanon and Israel agree to discuss a ceasefire in the U.S. on the 14th.
2. Israel’s ambassador to the U.S. says it did not agree to discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah.
3. Pakistan confirms that the U.S.-Iran negotiations will be held on the 11th at Serena Hotel in Islamabad.
4. U.S. Vice President Vance has departed for Pakistan, and it is expected that talks with Iran will make positive progress.
5. The Iranian negotiating delegation led by Iranian Islamic Assembly Speaker Kalibaf has arrived at Serena Hotel.
6. With negotiations imminent, the Iranian Islamic Assembly Speaker has put forward two major conditions: first, a ceasefire in Lebanon; second, the unfreezing of Iran’s frozen assets.
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