#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 4.10 Forex, Gold, Crude Oil Analysis Strategies

【US Dollar Index】  The US Dollar Index was under pressure overall yesterday, trading weakly and oscillating around 99; during the session it tested the 98.6 area again, and the daily chart closed with a single bearish candle. Judging from the daily structure, under the temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran—which has temporarily reduced the impact—the bearish pressure brought by Wednesday’s large bearish candle is indeed there, but it is also limited. In the short term, with the news flow not being very clear, it is also difficult for the market to clearly decide the direction of the next move. Tonight’s US CPI data will be released, adding more risk factors to an already uncertain market.  
Within the day, the US Dollar Index is still expected to consolidate and range for the time being. For technical pressure, mainly focus on the 5-day line around 99.3; for support, continue to first watch around 98.6/5. Pay special attention to the support at 98 for potential replenishment. How to choose the direction will require guidance from the US-Iran situation and tonight’s US CPI data. Therefore, within the day, non-USD currencies will also remain in general watchful waiting, and adjustments should be made in the evening session according to fundamentals.

【Gold】  Yesterday, gold first traded in a narrow range above the 5-day line at 4700. In the evening, due to uncertainty in the market about US-Iran negotiation expectations and as the US dollar weakened and adjusted, gold also created a short-term rebound. After testing the high around 4800, it retreated; in the end, the daily chart closed as a small bullish candle.  
In terms of the daily structure, yesterday’s gold performance was relatively calm overall; it was not significantly affected by the previous day’s bearish candle after a high that reversed. While it managed to hold the 5-day line without breaking it, there was also not much room for expansion above. This reflects that the market is still taking precautions toward a rapidly changing news backdrop. Going forward, the trend will still depend more on the news; technical expectations can only serve as auxiliary reference for the short term.
For gold today, the expectation is still to consolidate first. For the downside, continue to watch the struggle around the 5-day line near 4720. If it breaks down, the 10- and 20-day lines at 4670 will act as a buffer. But if the 10- and 20-day lines are also broken, gold will return to a weak downward trend. On the upside today, continue to watch the 4800 area. If there are signs that the geopolitical situation is easing and the dollar falls again, gold could also lift and rise another round—but both the space and the time are limited. You may focus on resistance tests around 4840-50 and 4900.  
Based on the hourly chart, gold today still has the possibility of continuing to consolidate. However, if gold follows the structure of the hourly chart, today it is important to focus on the contention around 4800. If this level is not broken, there is a possibility that the hourly structure could form a “head-and-shoulders top.” Technically, the bearish expectation would increase, but whether that expectation can ultimately be achieved still depends on whether news triggers it. Also, tonight’s US CPI data will be released. With the US-Iran situation causing oil prices to surge, market concerns about US inflation will intensify, which in turn increases expectations for Fed rate hikes—this may again provide some conditions for gold to rise.
The US-Iran ceasefire talks are hard to judge in terms of their true progress, and inflation concerns are also increasing market expectations for Fed rate hikes. With the news flow mixed and chaotic, it is difficult to judge the direction of gold’s short-term move. Therefore, the main line of thought for today is still to remain on the sidelines; depending on the clearer news later in the evening, corresponding strategy adjustments are needed.  
① Conservatively, choose to stay on hold for gold during the day, and adjust the strategy in the evening based on the US CPI data and relevant news about the US-Iran ceasefire talks.  
② For gold today, reference the technical outlook. You can focus on attempting to short on rallies. Refer to shorting when it rebounds near 4800; take a temporary stop-loss of 10 points. Target 4760-50 to reduce positions and switch to a break-even stop. For the remaining open positions, watch for a pullback near 4700. If it falls back below 4700, the shorts can be kept with the expectation of holding as a medium-term position.  
③ For gold today, do not consider short-term longs for now. If the CPI data tonight brings a positive catalyst to gold, the specific strategy will still need to be adjusted in real time based on the live market.

【Crude Oil】  Yesterday, US crude oil oscillated and rebounded due to uncertainties in the US-Iran negotiations. During the session, the high tested the expected 10-day line area around 102-3. However, later the news flow again introduced uncertainties: Israel intends to hold talks with Lebanon, which triggered a short-term drop in US crude oil, falling to around 95. It then gave back part of the intraday upside. In the latter half of the night, the market rebounded slightly; in the end, the daily chart closed as a small bullish candle with a long upper shadow.  
From yesterday’s execution rhythm in US crude oil, it can be seen that the market remains extremely sensitive to news. But more than anything, it is driven by the concern that the US-Iran situation is unlikely to fully ease. That is why, in the absence of news, the market oscillates and rebounds—after a negative news catalyst arrives, it first drops sharply and then oscillates and rebounds. Based on the current hourly structure, US crude oil today may also fall into a rather awkward oscillation situation in the short term. For resistance today, focus on the 101 area. If it breaks above, then look at the pressure around 103.0-5. For downside today, focus on the contention around 97-96. In the short term, there is no clear direction yet; the next step still needs to be judged based on the news. But the expected rhythm remains: when there is no news, it oscillates and rebounds; with negative news, it quickly drops first and then oscillates and rebounds.  
In terms of trading, for today a conservative approach is still to stay on the sidelines and wait; only after progress in the US-Iran negotiations can be confirmed should you make corresponding adjustments. For aggressive traders, you can temporarily do short-term low buys and high sells around the 103—101—96 range, but you must keep positions extremely light, and still guard against sudden risks from unexpected news.