The Chaos on the First Day of the Ceasefire—Missiles, Airstrikes, and Market Turmoil

Within only a few hours after the ceasefire news was announced, air-defense sirens continued to ring in Israel and in several Gulf countries; the Israeli military claimed that it was “still carrying out strikes against Iran”; a U.S. missile hit a farm in southern Iraq, causing 5 deaths; the ceasefire order from Iran’s highest leader may take time to reach combat units across the various regions… it is easy to announce a ceasefire, but much more difficult than people might think to make the ceasefire truly take effect.

I. The Latest Round of Attacks Before the Ceasefire Takes Effect

The ceasefire agreement did not simply appear out of nowhere. Just a few hours before the U.S. and Iran announced the ceasefire—on the afternoon of April 7—U.S.-Israel forces were still carrying out attacks against Iran. According to a report by a correspondent with CCTV, on that afternoon the U.S. and Israel carried out airstrikes on two locations in the city of Khorramshahr in Khuzestan Province, Iran; local residents heard about 5 explosions. The strikes injured 4 local civilians.

Meanwhile, southern Iraq’s Basra Governorate’s Al-Zubayr area was not spared either. Iraqi security officials said that three missiles launched by the U.S. from bases within Kuwait hit a farm in the area, causing the deaths of 5 civilians, including women. The operation was carried out without authorization from the Iraqi government, and was characterized by Iraqi security officials as an infringement of sovereignty.

During the operation to rescue the U.S. military pilot whose aircraft was shot down, the U.S. and Iran sides engaged in ground fighting for the first time in more than a month since the outbreak of the war. According to the information released by both sides after the fact, 4 Iranian officers were killed in the clashes, and there were no casualties among U.S. forces. Trump disclosed that two U.S. pilots had been receiving medical care and nursing in Germany. Iranian media then released a video lasting more than 40 seconds showing wreckage from the aircraft, insisting that the wreckage was of a U.S. aircraft shot down by Iran; there were clear discrepancies between the two sides’ accounts regarding casualties and battle results.

II. “Announcing a Ceasefire” Is Not the Same as “Immediately Ending the Fighting”

After the U.S. and Iran confirmed their acceptance of a two-week ceasefire, shortly thereafter Israel and Gulf countries including Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait still sounded air-defense alerts, warning the public that drones and missiles were coming in. Kuwait and the UAE announced that they were intercepting incoming drones and missiles; Bahrain’s Ministry of the Interior urged the public to take shelter in safe locations; Saudi Arabia issued an alert for the central oasis city of Al Ahsa, where there is the Prince Sultan Air Force Base with U.S. forces stationed. Israel, for its part, announced that it had identified multiple missiles coming from Iran and that it was trying to intercept the threats; an Associated Press reporter captured footage of an Iranian cluster-munition missile exploding in the airspace over northern Israel.

Iran’s highest leader, Mujtaba Khamenei, has ordered all armed forces to stop firing—“the war is not yet over, but all services must obey the order of the highest leader and stop firing.” However, during this conflict Iran adopted a decentralized defensive strategy, with military commanders in various regions holding limited autonomous authority outside the pre-set target lists. This means that the highest leader’s ceasefire order may take some time to be transmitted to military organizations in all areas—during that window, gunfire on the battlefield may still continue.

III. Israel: “We Are Still Striking Iran”

In sharp contrast to the ceasefire announcements made by both the U.S. and Iran, Israel’s statements were more direct. A senior Israeli security official said that although the United States and Iran had already announced a ceasefire, Israel was “still carrying out strikes against Iran,” and the Israel Defense Forces were attacking Iran’s missile launch facilities. After the ceasefire news was announced, Israel’s military still announced in the early hours of April 8 local time that it had detected an incoming new round of Iranian missile attacks.

This development reveals potential differences between the U.S. and Israel: although a White House official said Israel had agreed to a temporary ceasefire, Israel’s actions clearly did not fully follow the pace of the United States.

IV. A Major Market Shock: Oil Prices Plunge, Gold Prices Surge

The announcement of the ceasefire agreement triggered a strong reaction in global capital markets. On April 8, spurred by news of major progress in the U.S.-Iran negotiations, international oil prices plunged sharply—U.S. WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange saw their drop widen to 15%, to $93.79 per barrel.

In stark contrast, precious metals surged. London gold spot price quickly broke through the $4800 whole-dollar level, up 2.3% intraday; London silver spot price rose 3.5% intraday, reaching a peak of $75.62 during the day. This unusual trend shows that the market’s interpretation is far from as simple as “risk being eliminated”—the uncertainty brought by the two-week ceasefire, instead of easing concerns, further strengthened demand for gold as a safe haven.

V. After Two Weeks: A Negotiation That Is Bound to Be Difficult

Both the U.S. and Iran have confirmed that the next round of negotiations will begin on April 10 in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, lasting for two weeks; it may be extended with mutual agreement. The negotiations will cover Iran’s ten-point plan and the U.S. side’s core concerns. But Iran has made it clear that the negotiations do not mean the war is over; only after each of the principles in Iran’s ten-point plan has been accepted and each and every detail is finalized in the course of negotiations will Iran ultimately agree to end the war.

At the same time, in the U.S., domestic politics has also been thrown into fierce debate due to this maximum-pressure approach. More than 20 lawmakers from both the Democratic and Republican parties, including Senate Minority Leader Schumer, called on members of the Trump Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Trump’s right to continue serving as president—an extremely rare scene in modern U.S. political history.

Summary: On the first day the ceasefire agreement took effect, a fundamental reality was exposed—declaring a ceasefire is one thing; making the ceasefire truly take effect is another. Missiles are still being launched, air-raid alerts are still sounding, and the highest leader’s ceasefire order has not yet been delivered to all combat units; Israel is still “continuing to strike Iran.” For the decades of accumulated grievances between the U.S. and Iran, a two-week ceasefire is simply too short; but for a war that could spiral out of control at any moment, it is precious indeed. On April 10, the negotiation table in Islamabad will become the focus of global attention—before that, every hour, every minute, the situation may still change.
#Gate廣場四月發帖挑戰