April is historically one of the best-performing months of all time.

According to Bloomberg data: Over the past 25 years, the MSCI World Index has a 75% probability of delivering positive returns in April, with an average monthly increase of about +2.0%, ranking first among all 12 months of the year.
However, historical data always comes with an important implicit assumption: in those 25 years, no president has been able to suddenly raise the global average tariff rate from roughly 3% to over 20% within 72 hours.
In April 2025, Trump announced the “Liberation Day” tariff policy, triggering turmoil in global markets, with the stock market crashing and market value evaporating by tens of trillions.
Seasonality is also only a matter of probability; it may fail when facing Trump’s rhetoric, geopolitical issues, and economic policies.