1. Cycle Analogy: Similarities and Differences Between 2019 and 2026

Yili Hua compares the current situation to 2019, and this **“drought period”** indeed shares many characteristics:
• Liquidity exhaustion: In the secondary market, aside from mainstream coins, altcoin trading volume is bleak; in the primary market, VCs are becoming extremely selective, no longer easily funding PPTs.
• Layoff waves and industry cleanup: Only after experiencing large-scale layoffs and project shutdowns will market bubbles and speculative costs truly decrease.
• Differences: In 2019, Bitcoin was still below $10,000, whereas now it’s around the $70k mark. Although industry confidence is low, asset prices are not cheap. This means that current “bottom-fishing” is no longer simply buying low, but buying “the certainty of being mispriced.”
2. Has the Best Contrarian Investment Window Arrived?
I believe we are currently in the **“left-side positioning” deep water zone**, but whether it’s the “best” depends on your position structure:
• Primary market (VC): Absolutely a good opportunity. When everyone is pessimistic about Web3, project valuations become more rational, making it easier to identify truly technically defensible seeds.
• Secondary market (trading): The risk lies in “wear and tear.” Just as you previously judged that BTC couldn’t break through $72k, the market may erode investors’ patience through prolonged volatility.
3. Core Logic: Geopolitics and Macro Liquidity
Easing tensions between the US and Iran can indeed give risk assets a breather, but what truly determines the market trend in the second half of 2026 is still the Federal Reserve’s liquidity gate. If secondary market liquidity cannot shift from “sharp decline” to “recovery,” then mere confidence repair can only support a rebound, not a reversal.
💡 Summary:
The current contrarian investment logic is valid, but it requires **“patient capital.” If you, like Yili Hua, have a long-term perspective, now is indeed the sowing period for “opportunities similar to 2020.” But for ordinary investors, during this high-level sideways trading around $70,000, **“controlling position size + seeking high-quality primary assets”** is much wiser than full allocation and going all-in on the secondary market.
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