I. Core Observation and Bull-Bear Threshold

• Key Price Range: 2100-2120

• Focus for Monitoring: The closing confirmation of the price within this range will serve as the "switch" for intraday directional decisions.

• External Correlation Indicators: Keep a real-time watch on crude oil and gold (XAU) price movements; their correlation is a key catalyst for assessing short-term market risk sentiment.

II. Specific Trading Strategies

1. Main Strategy: Long Positions on Dips (Buy on Weakness During European Session)

• Entry Zone: 2060 - 2080

• Entry Signals:

◦ Price retraces to this support zone.

◦ KDJ indicator forms a golden cross.

◦ Crude oil prices show a slight decline, creating resonance.

• Target Levels:

◦ First Target: 2120 (reduce position or push for capital preservation)

◦ Second Target: 2146 - 2167

• Stop-Loss Level: 2040

2. Auxiliary Strategy: Short Positions on Rebounds (Rebound Play)

• Entry Zone: 2146 - 2167

• Entry Signals:

◦ Price rebounds to this zone and encounters resistance.

◦ MACD indicator forms a death cross.

◦ Crude oil or geopolitical news shows slight deterioration.

• Target Levels:

◦ First Target: 2120

◦ Second Target: 2080

• Stop-Loss Level: 2175 (consider reversing to long if broken)

3. Range Trading Strategy: Range-Bound Operations

• Trading Range: 2060 - 2167

• Suitable Scenario: When the price hovers around 2100-2120 without a clear trend.

• Trading Approach: Look for long opportunities near the lower boundary (around 2060), and short opportunities near the upper boundary (around 2167).

• Key Risk Control: For any single trade, stop-loss must not exceed 1% of the opening price.

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III. Risks and Discipline

1. Major Event Risks:

◦ Closely monitor Middle East geopolitical headlines (Iran/Houthi armed groups).

◦ Watch for US Bitcoin ETF fund flow data.

◦ These events can instantly cause liquidity droughts, with volatility spiking from 6% to over 10%. Stay alert.

2. Execution Discipline:

◦ Patience is key: After European session opens, wait for the 15-minute candlestick to close to confirm the validity of breakouts, avoiding false signals.

◦ Strict Stop-Loss: All trades must have predefined stop-loss levels, and strict adherence is required.