Lately I've been pondering a question: what are the underlying patterns of the crypto bull market? After observing so many cycles of ups and downs, it seems there are indeed some clues to follow.

Looking back at historical data, a full bull market cycle roughly lasts about 4 years. 2013, 2017, 2021—if this rhythm continues, the next bull run should start around 2025. But now it's already 2026, and looking back, this cycle has unfolded as expected.

The logic behind a bull market isn't actually complicated. First, institutions quietly accumulate positions, then the halving event acts as a catalyst. Once prices start rising, it’s easy to attract retail investors to follow the trend. During Bitcoin’s halving months, the pattern usually involves initial sharp dips and volatility, followed by a quick rebound and surge—this is a favorite tactic of market makers. The mid-2024 halving was exactly like that, and the subsequent trend mostly aligned with historical patterns.

I’ve noticed one phenomenon: each bull market doesn’t last very long, typically peaking within about half a year to a year. In contrast, bear markets tend to drag on for two years or even longer before a real recovery. This cycle is no exception.

Interestingly, the signals at the end of a bull market are very clear. When institutions and whales start hyping on social media with “I bought xxx,” it’s usually a prelude to distribution. Large retail influxes and market FOMO create a frenzy—often the final phase of the bull run. Many investors jump in at this point, only to get trapped.

In the past two halving cycles, Bitcoin’s price increased over 10 times, and it typically takes about 33 months to trigger a new bull market. Based on this cycle, the next bull run should start around 2027.

For investors, understanding the cyclical nature of bull markets is important, but maintaining rationality is even more crucial. Don’t get caught up in FOMO during the bull run, and be patient during bear markets. Policy changes, global economic conditions, and technological developments all influence the timing. Relying on simple, brute-force predictions often leads to pitfalls.

Rather than chasing every peak of a bull market, it’s better to focus on solid projects, quietly accumulate during bear markets, and wait for the next bull to come. Time and patience are the best weapons for steady profits in the crypto space.