March 31 Gold Morning Review

On March 31, gold experienced increased short-term volatility and oscillation, with the tug-of-war between bulls and bears intensifying. The overall trend remains in a sideways, slightly bearish pattern, with the market closely watching key levels and awaiting a breakout to signal the next direction.

The technical chart on the 1-hour timeframe is clearly visible. After the price surged to a high of 4580 and faced resistance, it pulled back, forming consecutive long upper shadow bearish candles. Selling pressure above has sharply increased, and the bullish momentum has temporarily waned. The short-term moving averages have turned downward, and the price continues to stay below the moving averages, indicating a short-term bearish trend. However, the core support at 4490 remains firmly held, and the moving averages have not yet formed a death cross. There is still some room for a minor rebound and correction, with no clear sign of a sustained downward move. Currently, focus is on two key levels: whether the support at 4490 can hold and whether the resistance at 4540 can be broken decisively. The market is likely to oscillate within this range in the near term.

On the news front, risk aversion sentiment has continued to decline. Previously, geopolitical tensions such as conflicts involving Israel and Iran, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, had provided safe-haven support, but the market has already fully priced in these factors, significantly weakening their impact on gold prices. The safe-haven premium for gold has been shrinking. Meanwhile, market expectations for Fed rate cuts remain divided, with the US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuating persistently, which continues to constrain gold’s price movement. Upcoming major macroeconomic data releases and public statements from Federal Reserve officials will directly influence the turning points of gold’s future trend.

Short positions: 4545-4565, target lower at 4480, with a break below potentially extending to 4430.

Long positions: buy on dips at 4400-4420, aiming for 4535; a breakout to higher levels could see prices reach 4580.