#国际油价走高 Crude oil will set the record for the largest monthly increase in history.

Weekend news continued to drive oil prices higher, influenced by Houthi attacks on Israel and U.S. President Trump’s announcement of plans to seize Iranian oil, causing international oil prices to rise again. The increase this month has already approached 60%, potentially setting a new record for the highest monthly gain ever; WTI crude futures rose to $101.78 per barrel, with a 51.2% increase so far this month.
JPMorgan analysts warned in a report that the conflict is no longer concentrated around the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz but has spread to the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which are among the most critical chokepoints for global crude oil and refined product transportation. The firm further noted that if oil exports through the Red Sea are interrupted, Saudi Arabia would have to transport oil via the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) pipeline from the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean coast of Egypt. This pipeline has a daily capacity of 2.5 million barrels, compared to the current east-west pipeline’s capacity of 7 million barrels per day.

Increasing Difficulty in Rapidly Lowering Oil Prices
As the Iran conflict persists, more analysts are feeling pessimistic about future oil prices. An engineer pointed out that the Middle East region produces approximately 20 million barrels of oil daily, with total storage capacity of only 450 million barrels. Considering additional exports, the region’s buffer time before production must halt is at most 25 days. Once tanks reach their maximum capacity, oil extraction must cease entirely. Sudden shutdowns can cause tiny rocks and clay particles in underground reservoirs to fall and settle, severely clogging near-wellbore perforations. This can cause permanent damage around the wellbore, fundamentally destroying natural permeability and severely impacting long-term production capacity.
Beyond the urgent storage issues, countries releasing strategic petroleum reserves face a 100-day countdown. This relates to the poor quality of oil resulting from long-term static storage. Decades of storage inevitably lead to the accumulation of wax, dense inorganic deposits, and corrosive hydrogen sulfide produced by sulfate-reducing bacteria. When the upper layer of high-quality crude is fully extracted, lower-quality, acidic oil is forced to be produced and used for refining. However, this low-grade oil quickly clogs heat exchangers and causes irreversible poisoning of sensitive refinery catalysts, leading to forced shutdowns and maintenance. For countries in urgent need of fuel, this would be a second devastating blow.
From a chemical and physical perspective, each day the U.S.-Iran conflict continues increases the risk of paralyzing the oil market. This also means that once the two aforementioned timelines are surpassed, even if the Strait of Hormuz can be quickly reopened, oil prices will not experience a V-shaped decline but will instead enter a sideways oscillation.
Capital Alpha Partners analyst Byron Callan stated that the conflict in the Middle East currently appears to be expanding and deepening, with a 25% chance it will end by the end of May, a 45% chance it will end by this fall, and a 35% chance it will continue until 2027. This suggests a very high probability of sustained high oil prices long-term.