The key to everything now is actually the Strait of Hormuz. If this strait is blocked, oil prices will continue to rise, U.S. stocks will keep falling, and cryptocurrencies will also continue to decline. Conversely, if the situation eases and the strait reopens, oil prices will fall—possibly sharply—and U.S. stocks and Bitcoin will immediately rebound. The causal relationship is that simple.

No one can predict when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, but one thing is certain: it will definitely not remain blocked forever, and it’s very likely it won’t be blocked for too long because the U.S. cannot afford it and is already looking for solutions. The most direct approach is that if Iran continues to block the strait, a ground war will be necessary, and it could be very intense, with the goal of a quick victory.
Iranian Navy Commander Shahram Irani stated on the 29th local time that Iran is monitoring the location, movements, and requests made by the U.S. “Lincoln” aircraft carrier group in real-time. Once the “Lincoln” carrier group enters Iran’s range, Iran will launch missiles.
A ground war is imminent and could erupt at any moment, but the outcome is actually not much in doubt because of the disparity in strength between the two sides. The U.S. is essentially conducting a decimation attack on Iran. If a direct ground conflict occurs, there is only one result: Iran will be defeated, and the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. Subsequently, crude oil prices will plummet, U.S. stocks will surge, and cryptocurrencies will also rise sharply—all just a matter of time. This prediction requires no special expertise; anyone with basic world knowledge can understand it.
From the recent market movements, despite the barrage of news about ground warfare and the tense situation reaching a breaking point, Bitcoin’s trend has not gone out of control. It has not experienced further crashes due to the news; instead, it shows signs of bottoming out and stabilizing, even slightly rising. If on Monday, under the mediation efforts and pressure from the U.S., Iran’s stance softens, there will surely be an astonishing rebound. $BNB
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