The probability of Israel launching an attack on Yemen before March 31, 2026, on Polymarket has increased significantly.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of “Israel launching strikes against Yemen before March 31, 2026” on Polymarket has significantly increased.

The current probability is 60%, while the average probability over the past 7 days was 18.1%.

On March 28, 2026, the Houthis announced that they had launched a ballistic missile attack on southern Israel. This marks the first direct military action by the Houthis against Israeli territory since the recent conflict between Iran and the U.S. and Israel began.

The group claims to have targeted “sensitive military facilities” in southern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that a missile fired from the direction of Yemen was detected and stated that it had been successfully intercepted, with no reports of casualties at this time.

Houthi spokesperson Yahya Saree stated that this action was a response to U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iranian, Lebanese, Iraqi, and Palestinian targets, emphasizing that their operations will continue until “the aggression stops.”

Houthi officials have recently issued multiple warnings that blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is one of their “viable options.” Analysts are concerned that after the restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, if the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is also substantially blocked, it would cut off key oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) routes from the Middle East to Europe and Asia.

Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing.