BTC Market Analysis Under Rate Hike Expectations

The market has increased the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year to over 50%, and expectations of tightening dollar liquidity have directly suppressed risk assets, putting short-term pressure on BTC.

Rising rate hike expectations will push up risk-free yields, prompting institutions to shift from high-risk assets like Bitcoin to US Treasuries and other assets. Coupled with the previous disappointment of rate cut expectations, this sentiment has led to downward volatility, with the market prone to oscillations. However, the upcoming Bitcoin halving cycle, along with institutional inflows into spot ETFs, still provide some support. In the short term, BTC is likely to fluctuate broadly between $68,000 and $72,000.

Operationally, it is recommended to avoid high leverage, focus on waiting or gradually accumulating on dips, and closely monitor Federal Reserve statements and ETF capital flows. If rate hike expectations strengthen further, be alert to a potential dip below the critical support level of $68,000.