#我的周末交易计划 Weekend Bitcoin market outlook is not optimistic—prepare yourself!

Crypto sector:
1. According to monitoring data, Grayscale transferred a total of 3979 ETH to Cb Prime addresses through its Ethereum mini trust fund, valued at approximately $852 million at an average price of $2141.
2. According to monitoring, a mysterious whale purchased 3618 ETH at an average price of $2128 using $7.7 million USDT.
3. Early Bitcoin supporter Erik Voorhees' associated address increased holdings by over 5800 ETH at an average price of $2126.

Market conditions:
1. On March 21, according to reports from CBS (Columbia Broadcasting System), multiple sources briefed on the matter revealed that U.S. Department of Defense officials have made detailed preparations for deploying U.S. ground forces to Iran.
2. U.S. President Trump (regarding Iran): I do not want a ceasefire at the moment. We can dialogue with Iran, but I don't want a ceasefire.
3. On March 21, on the evening of the 20th local time, Iran issued a statement stating that it launched the 69th wave of "True Promise-4" operations that evening. This operation targeted core Israeli areas, including objectives in Tel Aviv, Acre, and Haifa regions, with targets covering Israel's combat support enterprises, military-industrial sectors, and communication and radar-related facilities.
4. On March 21, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower, with the Dow falling 0.97%, the Nasdaq falling 2.01%, and the S&P 500 falling 1.51%.

Overall, the likelihood of rate hikes from the European Central Bank and Bank of England is increasing, potentially as early as April. The Federal Reserve maintained rates unchanged on Wednesday and forecasts inflation will rise, while Fed Chair Powell stated that due to the impact of war, the future policy path faces exceptionally high uncertainty. Against this backdrop, operations on BTC should primarily focus on shorting, and buying volume should be reduced and cautious.

Daily level: The coin price has tested downward multiple times near the key support of the 30-day moving average around 69000, and although it currently hovers around the 70000 round number, the rebound is weak. Additionally, from a time perspective, the coin price's sideways consolidation period has lasted nearly 1.5 months and is already positioned for a potential one-sided downtrend at any time. Furthermore, due to relatively mild weekend market conditions, the probability of the coin price continuing horizontal consolidation remains quite high.

Overall, buying actions require caution with minimal entries attempted. Shorting near resistance levels may be more attractive!

Upside targets: Initial resistance focus on the 5-day moving average near 70997; Further resistance focus on the 74000 round number vicinity!
Downside targets: Initial support focus on the 30-day moving average near 69121; Further focus on the Bollinger Band lower band near 66214! (If shorts unexpectedly see volume spike, 62400 also needs consideration)