JPMorgan LNG: China has material Hormuz-linked LNG exposure

• ~29% of China’s LNG imports depend on Strait of Hormuz transit making it one of the key buyers vulnerable to a Gulf disruption
• A prolonged Middle East conflict could trigger a major LNG supply shock especially if Qatari exports are suspended. Russian pipeline gas would only be a partial substitute
• The main brake on extreme prices is demand destruction across Asia and Europe which helps reduce the net market deficit
• Global LNG shipping is dominated by Greek and Japanese-linked fleets while China controls only a small share, limiting Beijing’s ability to solve the problem through shipping alone.
• Even if some Gulf cargoes receive exemptions, Qatar is unlikely to quickly normalize exports under medium-term conflict uncertainty
• The relatively muted near-term TTF response suggests the market still sees China has material Hormuz-linked LNG exposure