In my view, the recent upward move was primarily a short squeeze.

A large portion of traders were positioned short due to prevailing tensions.
However, when a trade setup appears too obvious, it’s important to remain cautious.
Markets often move in the opposite direction first to invalidate consensus positioning before continuing in the anticipated direction.
Shorts were squeezed, traders shifted to long positions, and that shift in positioning can create the conditions for a subsequent move lower.