SOL at Critical Fibonacci Support: Market at a Turning Point

Solana (SOL) has recently reached a pivotal technical level that traders have been monitoring closely. The current price of $80.29 sits directly near the Fibonacci support zone that was established from the broader corrective pattern unfolding since late 2025. This convergence of price action and fibonacci mathematical support levels creates a critical juncture for the asset. The structure analysis suggests we may be approaching a decisive moment where the next directional move could clarify the medium-term outlook.

Two Competing Wave Structures: Which Scenario Holds?

The fibonacci retracement levels reveal two plausible interpretations of SOL’s recent price movement. The primary scenario (orange count) suggests that the decline from the 2025 peak completed a clean three-wave ABC structure, which would indicate the end of a larger corrective phase. This interpretation implies potential for a sustained rally from current levels.

However, the alternative view (white count) reads the present bounce as merely the first wave in a larger corrective pattern—essentially a wave A in a bigger ABC formation. From a broader market context perspective, this scenario appears more consistent with current conditions. Under this interpretation, even if support holds near $62, any upside movement should be viewed as corrective in nature rather than the beginning of a new impulsive bull trend. The fibonacci levels provide mathematical reference points for where these waves may reverse or extend further.

What Would Confirm Bullish Momentum?

Right now, the structure remains unconfirmed. A modest bounce has materialized from the February lows, but it only produced a three-wave move—not the type of impulsive strength that would suggest conviction about a sustained recovery.

For bullish confirmation, traders should watch for two critical levels. If price decisively clears $88 and then breaks above $91.30, that would represent the first meaningful signal that a more extended rally is truly developing. Until those thresholds are breached, treating any upside as corrective bounce remains the prudent approach based on fibonacci analysis and wave structure.

Price Targets and Timeline

A retest of the January high near $150 remains theoretically possible over the coming months, but we’re nowhere near confirming that scenario yet. The fibonacci support zone currently serves as the key area—holding here prevents a deeper breakdown toward $62, while failing to hold could invite further liquidation. The analysis emphasizes that no definitive bottom has been established, and the bounce structure remains incomplete from an Elliott Wave perspective. Traders should stay vigilant for the $88-$91.30 breakout signals before assuming the worst is behind us.