Bitcoin Enters a High-Risk Phase — On-Chain Analysis Warns of Possible Market Pressure

New analytical data suggests that the market structure of Bitcoin may have entered a high-risk phase , according to an on-chain analysis published by blockchain analytics firm Glassnode . The analysis is based on blockchain data indicators that track investor behavior in recent months .

The analysis focuses on a metric known as the 90-Day Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio , which compares the amount of realized profits to realized losses from Bitcoin transactions over the last 90 days .

When the indicator is above 1

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It means that most investors are selling at a profit .

However , when the ratio drops below 1

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It indicates that , on average , traders are beginning to sell their Bitcoin at a loss .

According to the latest analysis

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This metric has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2022 . Some analysts interpret this signal as a sign that the market may be entering what is commonly known as a capitulation phase , a stage where many investors start selling their holdings at a loss after a period of market pressure .

The analysis also references historical comparisons with previous Bitcoin market cycles .

In 2018

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When a similar signal appeared in on-chain data , Bitcoin experienced a price decline of about 50% in the months that followed .

In 2022

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A comparable pattern emerged again , and the market saw a drop of roughly 25% over several months .

Based on these historical observations

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Some analysts suggest that if the pattern repeats , the market could face continued downward pressure for several months .

Current on-chain models also indicate that the level around $43,760 could represent a potential extreme low . This level aligns with the MVRV-based bear market floor model used by analysts to estimate possible market bottoms .

Overall

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The analysis suggests that the market could search for a structural bottom within the $40,000 to $50,000 range . Volatility may increase as the market attempts to stabilize .

⚠️ Important Warning

This report represents analysis based on historical data and on-chain indicators only

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It does not guarantee that the market will follow the same pattern as previous cycles . The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and can change rapidly due to factors such as global liquidity , economic developments , or large investor activity .

Therefore

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This analysis should not be considered financial or investment advice . Investors should always conduct their own research before making any investment decisions .