Here are the six outstanding convertible notes for MSTR.


The one everyone is interested in is the first put date: the September 2027 put.
If the September 2027 put date were today, it would likely be a non event for MSTR.
With the stock at $130, conversion is out of the money ($182 conversion price), but the bond is currently trading at $111 which means investors value the credit and the remaining optionality above par.
Viewing MSTR's near term credit risk as manageable, despite the stock sitting below conversion price. Since the put only returns $100, holders would have no economic incentive to exercise it.
In that scenario, put participation would be minimal and the bonds would simply remain outstanding, rolling forward to maturity in September 2028.
The market is currently pricing near term default risk as manageable under present conditions (This is after an 80% drawdown in the stock and a 50% drawdown in BTC).
I.e MSTR have a two year runway from here.
BTC-3,95%
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