#比特币下一步怎么走？ Bitcoin Plunges Late at Night! The $60,000 Support Line Under Threat, 200-Week Moving Average Becomes a Life-or-Death Line

On the last night of the Lunar Year of the Snake, the cryptocurrency market suddenly faces a “cold wave” — Bitcoin leads a sharp drop, Ethereum falls nearly 4%, and the crypto circle is filled with alarm overnight.
1. Late-night Crash: Bitcoin Loses Key Level, Panic Spreads
On the night of February 15, the crypto market suffered a heavy blow: Bitcoin dropped over 1%, Ethereum nearly 4%, and other major coins declined simultaneously. As of press time, Bitcoin is still struggling around $61,000, just a step away from the widely recognized psychological threshold of $60,000. More concerning is that multiple technical indicators and options data point to the same risk: if Bitcoin effectively breaks below $60,000, it could trigger a new round of extreme volatility.
2. Why is $60,000 a “Life-or-Death Line”? Three Key Reasons
1. Hidden “Bear Army” in the Options Market According to Deribit data, the largest position cluster in the current Bitcoin options market is put options below $60,000, with open interest totaling $1.24 billion. This means many investors are betting that Bitcoin will fall below this level, and once the price approaches, short-selling forces will be concentrated and unleashed.
2. The 200-Week Moving Average as the “Last Defense” Another critical support level closely watched by technical analysts is Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (currently above $58,000). This indicator is regarded by most analysts as the “bull-bear dividing line” — if it is lost, it not only indicates a weakening long-term trend but may also trigger a chain reaction of automated trading sell-offs.
3. Leverage Liquidation Risks Triggered Instantly Maxime Seiler, CEO of digital asset trading firm STS Digital, warned: “Many Bitcoin loans have trigger mechanisms — when the price approaches $60,000, lenders will automatically sell collateral to cut losses.” This forced liquidation could cause a “cascade effect”: price drops → triggers liquidations → further sell-offs → price continues to fall, creating a vicious cycle. Seiler emphasized: “$60,000 is a critical observation point. Falling below it could trigger large-scale deleveraging and hedge fund outflows, sharply increasing market volatility.”
3. From $69,000 to $60,000: Why Is Bitcoin “Falling Nonstop”?
Looking back at this decline, Bitcoin has fallen about 40% since reaching its peak of $69,000 in October last year. The trigger was the “deleveraging storm” at the end of last year — over $19 billion in long positions were forcibly liquidated, ending the previous rally. Since then, the price has failed to stabilize above key levels.
In February, selling pressure intensified again: Bitcoin has given back all the gains since Trump’s election (market initially expected his policies to benefit crypto), and market confidence remains fragile.
4. Institutional Bearish Sentiment: $50,000 Becomes the New Target?
Currently, bearish sentiment has become the dominant market theme. Michael Burry, the “Big Short” who accurately predicted the 2008 subprime crisis, warned that Bitcoin’s sharp decline could evolve into a “death spiral” (price drops → increased selling → further price declines, creating a self-reinforcing cycle).
Standard Chartered’s analyst team openly stated that Bitcoin might further decline to $50,000 before stabilizing (this level is also the second-highest open interest for put options). More importantly, market sentiment is worth noting — an anonymous analyst revealed: “Every investor we’ve contacted, regardless of how they define ‘short-term,’ is pessimistic. This consensus expectation itself is the biggest risk signal.”
5. Market Outlook: Break Below, and the Abyss? If Bitcoin effectively falls below the critical zones of $60,000/$58,000, technical analysis suggests further downside potential. Several analysts point to the next support level possibly around $40,000, which still implies nearly a 20% potential decline from current prices. For investors, two points require high alert: first, the “Gamma squeeze” in the options market (price volatility amplifies as market makers adjust hedges); second, the chain liquidation risk of leveraged funds. As Seiler said: “The market has entered a sensitive phase; any small movement could be the last straw that breaks the camel’s back.”