Rigetti Computing Stock Tumbles 18% in Early 2026: A Perfect Storm of Challenges

Rigetti Computing faced a brutal start to 2026, with shares declining 18% in January as multiple headwinds collided simultaneously. What looked like a pivotal year for the quantum computing company turned into a cautionary tale about the risks of betting on speculative tech stocks—a perspective that analysts like Johnny Strides have highlighted when examining the company’s mounting obstacles.

The quantum computing sector is experiencing a reality check. After an extraordinary 2025 that saw Rigetti’s stock skyrocket more than 500% from its April lows before surrendering more than half those gains by year-end, the early months of 2026 have continued the downward momentum. Three distinct forces converged to push the stock lower: a company-specific stumble on its flagship product, a macro environment increasingly skeptical of speculative technology investments, and a strategic move by a key competitor that reshapes the competitive landscape.

The Product Delay and Competitive Disruption

Rigetti was supposed to make a major splash in early 2026 with the launch of Cepheus-1-108Q, its most advanced quantum computer yet. Instead, the company postponed the product unveiling until at least the end of Q1, citing the need for additional refinement and quality assurance.

On the surface, a delayed launch seems manageable. But quantum computing investors operate under a different calculus. The entire sector is driven by perception that technological progress is accelerating. This is fundamentally a race to breakthrough, with various companies pursuing distinct technical approaches to overcome the substantial engineering challenges blocking commercial viability. Any postponement raises investor concerns about whether a company will ultimately cross the finish line.

Adding pressure to Rigetti’s stumble, competitor IonQ announced a major strategic shift: a $1.8 billion acquisition to establish its own in-house chip fabrication capability. This move carries significant competitive implications. Rigetti had long emphasized its vertically integrated manufacturing approach as a key differentiator. Now IonQ is matching that capability, eliminating one of Rigetti’s claimed advantages and intensifying the race for technological supremacy.

Broader Tech Pressures Weigh on Investors

Beyond company-specific issues, Rigetti faced headwinds from the wider tech environment in January. Microsoft’s earnings report revealed concerning capital spending dynamics that spooked growth investors across the sector.

The tech giant disclosed that it has already deployed $72 billion in capital expenditures through the first half of its fiscal year—with artificial intelligence infrastructure accounting for the majority of that spending. Compare this to the $88 billion Microsoft spent for the entire prior fiscal year, and the magnitude of AI investment becomes staggering.

The market’s concern is straightforward: Microsoft is spending aggressively on AI infrastructure and pushing AI products to customers, yet adoption remains minimal and cloud revenue growth has stalled or declined relative to historical trends. Investors are increasingly uncomfortable with this dynamic—massive expenditures with limited visible returns. This skepticism about AI monetization has rippled through the tech sector, particularly hitting highly speculative stocks like Rigetti Computing.

Understanding the Valuation Risk

Rigetti is fundamentally a speculative bet with an extreme valuation. The investment thesis depends entirely on quantum computing achieving major commercial breakthroughs within the next few years. That’s possible, but far from certain.

The delayed product launch, combined with IonQ’s competitive response and broader market skepticism about speculative tech spending, has shaken investor confidence. For a company trading on hopes rather than current financial performance, sentiment shifts are devastating.

Most investors should likely stay cautious about this name. While quantum computing may eventually deliver transformative value, the path to profitability remains uncertain and the near-term risks are substantial. The current environment—where even dominant companies like Microsoft face scrutiny over AI spending returns—makes this a particularly unfavorable time to chase speculative quantum computing stocks.