Next Week's Macro Outlook: Federal Reserve Minutes and PCE Data to Make Major Headlines, Supreme Court May Issue Ruling on Trump Tariffs

February 15, 2026 — The global markets will experience a "data bombardment" week next week.
The Federal Reserve will release the January monetary policy meeting minutes at 03:00 on Thursday, with markets looking for more clues about the interest rate cut path in 2026;
On Friday at 21:30, the US Q4 GDP preliminary estimate and core PCE price index will be the focus. As the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, if the PCE reading exceeds expectations, it could influence the pace of policy easing within the year.
On the central bank front, multiple Fed officials will speak intensively, the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its meeting minutes, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its interest rate decision. The market generally expects the RBNZ to hold steady, while the RBA may emphasize upside inflation risks.
Asset performance-wise, spot gold remains volatile at high levels, rebounding after a sharp decline earlier in the week; crude oil surged then retreated amid reports that OPEC+ may resume production increases in April; the US dollar’s movement will be a key variable—if it does not hit new lows, it may remain relatively strong amid the upcoming tariff ruling. Meanwhile, US Treasury demand is heating up, potentially triggering a new round of asset reallocation.
Major events include the United States Supreme Court releasing opinions on February 20, including a ruling on Trump’s "Day of Liberation" tariffs. An unfavorable ruling could significantly impact related tariffs and influence global trade and market sentiment.
On the corporate front, earnings season is winding down. Walmart will announce its Q4 fiscal year results, with key focus on e-commerce growth, AI applications, and tariff impacts. Its guidance could have a significant effect on retail and overall market sentiment. #我在Gate广场过新年