#我在Gate广场过新年 Bitcoin retakes $70,000 USD, currently leaning towards a "strong rebound," but a trend reversal cannot be confirmed. Although there are positive signals in the market and capital flow, the overall market structure and sentiment indicate that bulls and bears are still engaged in high-level battles.

Key Data
Current Price: approximately 70,300 USDT, 24-hour increase
1.55%
Daily MACD golden cross, indicating a bullish signal; 15-minute chart shows a short-term bullish arrangement
24-hour trading volume has increased to 684,589,266 USDT, indicating active capital
Less than 1% increase over 7 days, but 30-day and 90-day declines exceed -24%
Fear and Greed Index is relatively low, sentiment is slightly optimistic but not yet euphoric

In terms of news, recent ETF net outflows have occurred, but there are also large institutional purchases, showing divergence

This rebound is mainly driven by capital returning after previous oversold conditions, partly due to macroeconomic positives such as (lower-than-expected inflation, )easy monetary policy, and some institutions catching the rebound trend. For example, the US Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $360 million in early February, reflecting cautious mainstream capital; however, on the other hand, entities like SAFU Fund, Strategy companies, and others have recently increased holdings significantly, signaling "institutions buying on dips."

From a technical perspective, short-term momentum is strong, with a bullish structure forming on the 15-minute chart, but the daily chart has not yet reversed the medium-term moving average's bearish arrangement. The MACD has a bullish crossover, which is positive for short-term traders, but historically, similar structures often lead to high-level "traps" where funds chase the high, followed by consolidation or retracement.

Looking at trading volume, there is indeed new capital entering the market, but long-term investor sentiment remains divided, with lower participation from mainstream traders and KOLs.

In terms of public sentiment, retail enthusiasm remains steady, with more bullish than bearish discussions. Hot topics include "Brazil may buy 1 million BTC," "OG whales making large transfers," which can boost short-term sentiment; however, these stories have limited impact on medium- to long-term trends.

According to multiple authoritative media and professional analysis platforms such as (Coindesk, Forbes, etc. (data from the internet, for reference only), the current rebound is inclined towards a "relief rally in a bear market," meaning a technical rebound after a market decline. A true bullish reversal requires sustained capital inflows and fundamental events to align.

Investment Advice
In the short term, rebound momentum remains, but there is significant resistance in the 70,000-71,000 USDT range, so caution is advised against chasing high and risking a pullback.

If you already hold positions, consider using the MA20 as a risk control reference;

For those considering building positions gradually, set stop-loss orders and prioritize buying on dips rather than chasing highs. Long-term investors should monitor ETF capital flows and mainstream institutional movements, and avoid heavy positions betting on a reversal without confirmation.

Risk Recommendations
High-level oscillations can lead to sharp shakeouts. This rebound is built on increased volume, capital inflow, and improved sentiment, but lacks structural breakthroughs and has not confirmed a new bull cycle. Major players still have the potential to sell off, and large transfers or positive news can easily be traps to lure in buyers. Risk management is crucial—allocate positions reasonably, pay attention to stop-losses, and do not rely solely on a single positive signal.