Bitcoin in the winter backdrop: energy costs push miners to the exit

Winter conditions become a critical factor for Bitcoin miners when energy costs reach peak levels. Against the backdrop of harsh winter weather, including recent winter storms in the US, miners face economic pressure that could lead to a significant outflow of active network participants. According to analysts, current market realities indicate a potential downward correction in Bitcoin’s price.

According to information from Cointelegraph, the cost to mine one Bitcoin under current energy expenses is approximately $59,450 based on minimal electricity costs and around $74,300 considering net production costs. These figures are based on an analysis by Capriole Investments, a major hedge fund in the cryptocurrency sector. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $67,640, remaining within the range between these critical breakeven points.

Miner costs and winter backdrop: expenses exceed profits

The winter period traditionally involves rising energy tariffs and increased demand for electricity for heating. This creates a perfect storm for miners, who are already operating with minimal profit margins. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, directly points to “miner exit” as a significant factor in bearish market forecasts.

Analysts estimate that the market could decline to the target zone of $74,300–$59,450 during winter before miners face critical financial pressure. However, many will continue operating even if prices fall below average costs, as they have liquidity reserves.

Hashrate declines: impact of winter conditions and alternative investments

The end of January saw a noticeable decrease in Bitcoin’s hashrate to levels seen in mid-2025. Experts attribute this decline to several factors operating under winter conditions. On one hand, severe winter weather in the US may have disrupted mining operations and caused forced shutdowns. On the other hand, some miners are presumably shifting their resources to more profitable ventures related to supporting artificial intelligence infrastructure.

This phenomenon of mass reorientation is intensified by the winter backdrop, where economic viability becomes most critical. Miners facing rising electricity bills during winter are more inclined to consider alternative uses for their equipment.

Network self-regulation mechanism: how Bitcoin recovers

Bitcoin’s historical resilience stems from an embedded self-regulation mechanism within its protocol, as noted by Jeff Feng, co-chair of Sei Labs. When miners suspend activity, mining difficulty automatically decreases over time, making rewards easier and cheaper for remaining participants. This natural recovery stabilizes the network and provides a foundation for its subsequent development.

This mechanism has worked in the past and will continue to function in the future, regardless of winter conditions or other external factors. The network adapts and finds a new equilibrium, maintaining optimal security levels.

Lessons from 2021: how Bitcoin recovered after the crash

History provides a powerful precedent. After China banned mining in 2021, the hashrate dropped by about 50%, triggering a sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price from around $64,000 to $29,000. It seemed the market was on the brink of collapse. However, over the next five months, the price recovered to $69,000, demonstrating the market’s innate ability to compensate for shocks.

Today’s challenges, including the winter backdrop and miner exits, fit into a cyclical pattern that Bitcoin has repeatedly navigated. The network’s self-regulation mechanism allows it to recover even after severe shocks.

Fair energy cost: a long-term benchmark

As of now, the fair value of Bitcoin, based on energy costs and network expenses, is estimated at approximately $120,950. This metric uses energy resources and network expenses to determine a fair valuation, providing a long-term reference point for investors.

Historically, Bitcoin tends to revert to its energy-based fair value after prolonged periods of decline. Current conditions, despite the winter backdrop and pressure on miners, do not imply long-term devaluation of the asset. Rather, they represent a short-term correction within Bitcoin’s natural price cycle.

The market could decline to the range of $74,300–$59,450 in the near term, but any subsequent recovery could potentially push the price back toward the fair value level. Winter conditions, miner exits, and fluctuations in energy costs are part of the normal functioning of the Bitcoin network, not signs of its demise.