Ethereum as a signal of global liquidity: Is the 2021 scenario repeating?

Ethereum is once again being compared to macro conditions that previously preceded its massive bull markets. The current signals derived from global liquidity, the development of U.S. small-cap stocks, and on-chain accumulation suggest that the market may be approaching an inflection point. With ETH price at $1.99K and a market capitalization of $240.32B, analysts are highlighting a repeating pattern that could bring a significant shift in the coming months.

When Signals Align: Macro Conditions for ETH

Crypto analyst Sykodelic and other market observers identify the same three-phase macro pattern that historically precedes major Ethereum rallies:

1. Global liquidity comes to the forefront – International token capital expands
2. Russell 2000 confirms the trend – The U.S. small-cap index follows this momentum
3. Ethereum enters an acceleration phase – ETH typically reacts with a delay of several weeks

This sequence occurred exactly a year ago in 2021, when Ethereum surged by 226% between March and November. Confirming these signals now indicates that similar conditions could repeat at the start of 2026.

Repeating Liquidity Signal: Pattern from 2021 Returns

Global liquidity has indeed returned to the forefront of market activity. The Russell 2000 confirmed its own breakout shortly after, reaching a new all-time high near 2,738 points. Historically, Ethereum tends to lag behind these movements and enters a strong expansion phase with some delay.

In the previous cycle, ETH began its rally approximately 119 days after the Russell 2000 breakout. If this timing repeats, Ethereum could enter a strong phase around March 2026. The current monthly structure of the Russell 2000 also closely mirrors its setup from 2021—something that has historically signaled broader interest in risk assets.

Small Caps as a Leading Signal for Ethereum

Max from the BecauseBitcoin team emphasizes the historical role of the Russell 2000 as a leading indicator for Ethereum. When the index hits new all-time highs, it usually precedes periods of aggressive ETH price increases. The recent breakthrough near the record of 2,738 is therefore a signal that market watchers are monitoring closely.

The strength of small-cap stocks could again act as a catalyst for Ethereum in the upcoming weeks and months. If historical correlations remain intact, this should be a positive sign for ETH.

Chain Data Reinforces Support Structure

On-chain analysis adds another dimension to the picture. According to CryptoQuant data, Ethereum accumulation addresses—wallets that continuously buy without distributing—are increasing their realized prices. This metric has historically served as a strong support zone, and in previous market cycles, Ethereum has not fallen below this level.

With ETH trading near these levels, analysts estimate that any decline could be limited to around 7%, placing the local bottom close to a key support. This range also aligns with significant external liquidity zones, increasing the likelihood of technical rebounds if the price revisits this area.

Why Liquidity Is a Stronger Signal Than Narratives

While short-term fluctuations continue, the primary driver for Ethereum will likely be global liquidity conditions rather than media headlines or isolated technical indicators. In past cycles, the strongest ETH rallies began after liquidity expansion—often even before public sentiment shifted.

If current macro setups remain valid, Ethereum is preparing for a delayed but potentially powerful breakout that mirrors the structure supporting its last triple-digit increase. The global liquidity signal will be key to understanding future developments. #ETH](#