How BTC collapsed from 98,000 to 66,000: the myth of the super cycle

Let’s go back to January 17: Bitcoin was strengthening around $98,000, a rebound that could be considered temporary. At that time, I shared my analysis suggesting that this level of $98,000 was far from being definitive, that it was simply a technical rebound characteristic of bear markets. But then, criticism flooded in: “You’re wrong, the super cycle is starting,” the optimists told me. Today, BTC has plummeted to around $80,000, then down to the current $66,000. Those same enthusiastic voices? They have vanished.

A $98,000 rebound that the market refuses

Unfortunately, this scenario is not new. In 2021, everyone was talking about an endless bull market. In 2025, a slow and steady price increase was expected. And now, in 2026, the narrative of the “super cycle” has dominated conversations. Yet, the reality of prices tells a very different story: since that famous $98,000, the market has plunged more than 30%, revealing that this peak was indeed a temporary mirage.

Why the super cycle collapsed

Super cycle believers disappear because their scenario cannot withstand the confrontation with facts. With each bull cycle, euphoria pushes the limits of reason: “This time, it will be different,” they claim. But the market shows no mercy to the naive. Traders who were seduced by the optimistic discourse now hold losing positions, while BTC continues its decline.

The real cycle: every four years, the halving

Let’s stop telling ourselves stories. In the world of cryptocurrencies, there is only one truly reliable and predictable cycle: the four-year cycle centered around Bitcoin’s halving. It’s not a super cycle, it’s not an eternal rise; it’s simply a mechanical phenomenon related to BTC supply. As long as investors ignore this fundamental reality and cling to super cycle myths, they will continue to suffer bitter losses. The market, for its part, will keep its predictable dance around this unchanging four-year cycle.