Why True XRP Bull Believers Haven't Dumped at That Price: Schwartz's Market Reality Check

There’s a stark disconnect between what many XRP supporters claim and how they actually behave in the market. Former Ripple Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz recently highlighted this contradiction, using simple market logic to expose the gap between conviction and action. According to his analysis, the persistent selling of XRP at prices well below the $100 target that advocates frequently tout reveals something uncomfortable: most investors don’t genuinely believe in that price scenario. At the current XRP level of $1.36, this observation becomes even more pointed.

The Contradiction Between Claims and Actions

Schwartz argued that if investors truly believed XRP could reach that price—implying over 7,000% upside from current levels—their behavior would look completely different. Genuine believers would be aggressively accumulating at these levels rather than offloading their holdings. More specifically, anyone with authentic conviction would refuse to liquidate positions below $10, viewing anything beneath that threshold as an exceptional buying opportunity.

Yet the market tells a different story. The continuous selling pressure below the $10 mark contradicts the bold predictions circulating through XRP communities. This gap between rhetoric and reality isn’t accidental; it reflects the actual probability assessments that market participants hold, even if they publicly embrace more bullish scenarios. When rational experienced traders act, their portfolio decisions typically align more closely with true market conviction than their social media commentary.

The Logic of True Belief in Asymmetric Opportunities

Schwartz presented a compelling framework for understanding investor conviction. He suggested that if even a 10% probability existed for XRP reaching $100 within a reasonable timeframe, rational market participants would immediately eliminate all available supply below $10. The math is straightforward: if you believe there’s a meaningful chance of $100, buying at $1.36 becomes a no-brainer allocation.

Instead of the rush to accumulate he’d expect to see, the market continues functioning normally with consistent supply at modest prices. This absence of frenzied buying activity speaks louder than any price prediction. It indicates that professional traders and sophisticated investors, despite public bullish positioning, are pricing in much lower probability assessments for that price target than the vocal community suggests. Supply persistence at current levels is market intelligence—it reveals authentic expectations.

Schwartz’s Cautious Refusal: Learning From Past Underestimations

When pressed by XRP advocates to categorically dismiss the possibility of prices between $50 and $100, Schwartz declined to make such absolute statements. His reluctance stems from personal experience in crypto markets, where he has repeatedly underestimated price outcomes. He openly acknowledged that he previously dismissed XRP reaching $0.25, then watched it climb much higher. Selling his XRP holdings around $0.10 due to perceived overvaluation remains a cautionary tale for him.

His reference to Bitcoin’s early history reinforces this humility. Many observers once considered a $100 Bitcoin laughable; similar skepticism surrounded $1,000 and $10,000 milestones. Crypto’s price history includes enough surprises that blanket dismissals carry risks. However, Schwartz’s unwillingness to completely discount that price doesn’t mean he believes it’s probable—rather, he recognizes the limits of definitive price forecasting in highly speculative markets.

Market Rationality as the True Price Discovery Mechanism

The core of Schwartz’s argument rests on a fundamental principle: crypto markets generally behave rationally when aggregating the beliefs and capital allocation decisions of millions of participants. Major bull runs rarely emerge from widely shared predictions or popular community narratives. Instead, unexpected external developments—regulatory shifts, institutional adoption, technological breakthroughs—typically drive significant repricing.

For XRP specifically, the fact that believers continue selling below $10 while simultaneously promoting $100 price targets represents a market outcome. It reflects the collective wisdom (or lack thereof) embedded in trading activity. Supply-and-demand dynamics reveal true conviction more reliably than bold proclamations. As long as significant XRP supply remains available at these levels without triggering aggressive accumulation, the market is effectively communicating that that price—the $100 target—remains in the realm of possibility rather than high probability.

The uncomfortable truth Schwartz articulated is that genuine believers reveal themselves through their portfolio actions, not their social media posts. Until the behavior of market participants fundamentally shifts—until that price becomes so likely that accumulation becomes frenzied—the gap between XRP’s bullish narrative and its market-determined price will persist.