1️⃣ The chances of consolidation and growth above $71K are high. The key factor is the inflow of capital through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) (ETF), which, despite volatility, remains positive. However, the market is overheated, and sharp movements often lead to liquidations. A "step forward, two steps back" scenario is likely: testing new highs around $73-74K (~$73-74K) with subsequent corrections to support levels at $68K and $65K ($68K, $65K). The final breakthrough, in my opinion, will occur closer to the halving event and amid easing inflation in the USA.

2️⃣ Strategy: long-term vs active trading
The core of the portfolio is a long-term HODL (HODL) position, which is not sold despite volatility. This is an asset protected against inflation and digital gold for a 5-10 year horizon. Simultaneously, part of the capital is allocated for active trading on volatility. In overbought zones—such as during sharp jumps on positive news (for example, during sharp jumps on positive news)—a portion of profits is taken. Funds are reinvested during corrections to strong support levels. This strategy allows increasing the BTC stack even in sideways markets.

3️⃣ Macro factors and trader preparation

· NFP/CPI: Strong employment growth data (indicate that high inflation )and strong employment figures push back expectations of Fed easing, which puts pressure on risk-on assets, including BTC. Preparation: before data releases, reduce leverage and lock in some profits. Weak data can serve as a catalyst for growth.
· Geopolitics (—Iran-US tensions, elections in Japan ): Escalation acts as an impulse for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset. The elections in Japan could influence global monetary policy (—if the Bank of Japan tightens its stance, it will strengthen the yen and may temporarily reduce risk appetite ).
· Overall preparation:
· Risk management: No all-in positions. Maintain a clear stop-loss on each trade.
· Liquidity reserves: Part of the funds—USDT, USDC (—are always ready for purchase during deep corrections.
· Focus on technical levels: Key supports and resistances—EMA, Fibonacci levels )—are now more important than in a rising market.

In conclusion: The current phase is a test of resilience. Confident growth is expected above ( from )$71K , with the market demonstrating strength and readiness for the next move.