1. Tonight's Data Briefing

- ADP Employment Change (announced at 21:15): Expected 48,000, previous 41,000

- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (announced at 23:00): Expected 52.0, previous 51.4

- Manufacturing PMI released: ISM 52.6 (expected 48.5),

Significantly exceeding expectations, returning to expansion, which has pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, preemptively suppressing risk assets.

2. Core Transmission Logic (Crypto Circle)

Cryptocurrencies are high-risk, highly liquidity-sensitive assets. Tonight’s data influence crypto prices through expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts → USD/US Treasury yields → capital flow:

1. Better-than-expected data

- Strong ADP, rising Non-Manufacturing PMI → Employment/Economic resilience exceeds expectations → Fed rate cut delay, maintaining high interest rates longer → USD and Treasury yields rise → Capital flows out of risk assets (crypto, tech stocks) → BTC/ETH face short-term pressure, higher probability of correction

2. Worse-than-expected data

- Weak ADP, PMI falls below the expansion threshold → Worsening economic slowdown concerns → Rate cut expectations advance → USD and Treasury yields decline → Capital flows back into risk assets → Crypto short-term rebound, bulls gaining momentum

3. In line with expectations

- Market sentiment remains stable, volatility narrows, market returns to halving expectations, ETF capital flows, and other endogenous drivers

1. Increased short-term volatility: 15–30 minutes after data release is a period of intense fluctuation; traders should control leverage and set stop-loss and take-profit orders

2. Correlation observation: Monitor USD Index, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, and NASDAQ simultaneously; they tend to move in the same direction with high correlation.

Based on data impact and market conditions, better trading decisions can be made. If you have any questions or concerns, feel free to consult Mr. Zhao.