February 4, 2026 11:30 (UTC+8), BTC is currently trading at $76,300, with a 24-hour low of $73,112, down approximately 2.05%. The bearish dominance continues, oversold weak recovery cannot change the trend, and the rebound is lackluster.

📊 Key Levels and Indicator Overview

- Resistance: $77,500-$78,000/$79,000 (strong resistance at $78,000); Support: $75,000/$74,000/$73,112 (strong support at $74,000).
- Moving Averages: 50/200-day moving averages are in a bearish alignment, with price far below the averages, exerting strong pressure.
- RSI(14): 26-28, extremely oversold, weak rebound does not indicate reversal.
- MACD( Daily): Death cross persists, bearish momentum strong, no clear convergence in histogram.
- Volume: Rebound with decreasing volume, insufficient buying pressure, selling pressure still present.
- Pattern: 4-hour Bollinger Bands opening downward, price moving along the lower band, clear bearish channel.

⚙️ Trading Strategies (by type)

- Contract Strategy (Aggressive): Short at $77,500-$78,000 on rebound, stop-loss at $78,800, target $75,500-$75,000, break below to $74,000-$73,112, position size ≤2%.
- Spot Strategy (Conservative): Mainly observe, gradually add light positions: around $75,000 with 1-2%; add another 1-2% if $74,000 stabilizes, total position ≤3%, stop-loss below $72,500.
- Mid-term Strategy (Positioning): If $74,000 is effectively broken, mid-term target $72,000-$70,000, wait for weekly volume contraction to confirm bottoming, RSI divergence before re-entering.

⚠️ Risk Management Points

- Contracts: Strictly prohibit high leverage, use small positions + strict stop-loss to prevent extreme volatility from causing liquidation.
- Liquidity: Rebound with decreasing volume, beware of sharp pullbacks, control slippage risk.
- Correlation: Closely monitor US stocks, US dollar index, and macroeconomic fluctuations; ETF fund flows may intensify volatility.
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