Why Bitcoin remains unpredictable in 2026: the analysis by Brian Venturo and Galaxy Digital

The current geopolitical and macroeconomic context makes 2026 one of the most challenging years for Bitcoin forecasts. According to Galaxy Digital analysts, the combination of economic uncertainty, political risks, and uneven momentum in the cryptocurrency market creates scenarios too chaotic to predict with certainty. Brian Venturo and Galaxy’s research team have published an in-depth assessment of the sector’s prospects, highlighting how Bitcoin is undergoing a significant structural transition.

Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, emphasized that the company maintains a long-term bullish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. However, the path to this goal remains highly uncertain in the short term.

Macroeconomic risks make prediction difficult

The uncertainty characterizing 2026 is not accidental. Brian Venturo and Galaxy Digital researchers identified multiple factors complicating price projections. The analysis conducted by Galaxy Research, the company’s research arm, underscores how overlapping macroeconomic and market risks create a scenario where traditional valuation methodologies become less effective.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $77,480 with a daily loss of 3.50%, confirming the ongoing volatility that has characterized these early months of 2026. As long as the asset does not decisively break through the $100,000 to $105,000 range, downside risk remains significant, according to Galaxy’s analysis.

What do options markets reveal about volatility

Derivatives provide revealing signals of widespread uncertainty among industry professionals. The evaluation of Bitcoin options implies roughly equal probabilities of drastically different outcomes for the next year: traders assign similar odds to scenarios where Bitcoin could be around $70,000 or $130,000 by mid-2026, and around $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year.

These wide ranges do not represent a contradiction but rather a faithful reflection of market reality. Professionals are preparing for significant price swings rather than a clear directional trend. Options markets, widely used by institutional investors to hedge future risk, reveal that there is no consensus on the path Bitcoin will follow over the next twelve months.

Signs of structural evolution in Bitcoin

Beyond short-term uncertainty, Brian Venturo and Galaxy’s team have identified structural phenomena suggesting a deeper transformation. Bitcoin’s long-term volatility—measured over extended periods—is decreasing. This change is partly attributed to the growth of sophisticated institutional strategies such as options overwriting and yield-generating programs, which tend to mitigate extreme price movements.

A particularly significant indicator emerges from Bitcoin’s “volatility smile,” which describes how option prices vary depending on strike levels. According to Galaxy’s analysis, downside protection is now valued more expensively than upside exposure—a pattern more commonly observed in mature macro assets like stocks and commodities rather than in high-growth markets. This evolution suggests that Bitcoin is maturing, taking on characteristics of a macro investment rather than a high-growth speculative asset.

Institutional adoption: the real driver for 2027

For Galaxy Digital and analysts like Brian Venturo, these technical signals help explain why a potentially sideways or “boring” 2026 would not undermine Bitcoin’s long-term validity. Even if prices fall or approach long-term technical levels such as the 200-week moving average, institutional adoption would continue to progress.

Galaxy’s long-term conviction is based on deeper institutional integration. In the report “26 Crypto, Bitcoin, DeFi, and AI Predictions for 2026” published on December 18, the company highlighted that a major asset allocation platform could incorporate Bitcoin into standard model portfolios. This move would embed the asset into predefined investment strategies rather than discretionary operations, directing persistent flows toward Bitcoin regardless of market cycles.

This inclusion marks a turning point: structural adoption, rather than short-term volatility, will shape outcomes through 2027 and beyond. Brian Venturo and Galaxy analysts believe that expanding institutional access, a possible easing of monetary conditions, and demand for alternatives to fiat currencies could position Bitcoin to follow the path of gold as a hedge against monetary devaluation.

Long-term outlook: $250,000 by 2027

Despite the uncertainty characterizing 2026, Galaxy Digital maintains a strategic long-term outlook. The company predicts that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, a target reflecting confidence in long-term institutional adoption rather than short-term speculative movements.

This scenario highlights an important distinction in the analysis by Brian Venturo and the research team: differentiating between tactical market noise in 2026 and the developing structural trend over years. A year of consolidation or correction may not represent a defeat for the Bitcoin narrative but rather a necessary maturation phase toward a truly institutionalized asset.