#加密市场观察 Kevin Warsh Takes Over the Fed: An Hawkish Backstab in the Battle of Bitcoin, Liquidity, and Trump's High-Stakes Gamble

There's a unwritten rule on Wall Street: when everyone thinks the shoe has dropped, it's often the moment when the ceiling is about to cave in. On the last Friday of January 2026, Donald Trump finally couldn't hold back and put forward the name that all of Wall Street knows well—Kevin Warsh. At this moment, the risk asset markets let out a sigh of relief, the dollar rebounded accordingly, as if everyone was celebrating that Jerome Powell, the punching bag dubbed "Too Late" by the president, would finally be gone in May. But if you went all-in on cryptocurrencies or tech stocks at this point, thinking that "Trump's trade" plus a new chairperson means the printing presses will be smoking, you might be making a trillion-dollar cognitive error.

The Liquidity Killer Disguised as a "Fellow Traveler"
Trump's choice of Warsh appears on the surface to be a reunion of political allies, but in reality, it's a dark humor of misalignment. What does Trump want? Negative interest rates, a weak dollar, the Dow soaring to the moon, and the Fed slashing rates from the current 3.5% down to a 1% floor. In his view, Warsh, handsome, accomplished, and the "also-ran" who nearly got the job back then, should be a compliant executor. However, the devil is in the details—or rather, in Warsh's doctrine called "Prudent Money."

Warsh is not the type of dovish figure who would loosen monetary policy to please the president. On the contrary, he is one of the youngest and most intimidating hawks in Fed history. During the financial crisis, he was skeptical of quantitative easing (QE). In Warsh's worldview, the Fed's balance sheet isn't a recharge card for the stock market but a nuclear arsenal that must be kept lean at all times. The current market cheer is purely a knee-jerk reaction to "uncertainty removal," but it selectively ignores Warsh's core stance: he wants a smaller Fed balance sheet. What does that mean? It means draining liquidity from the market, tightening liquidity, and potentially bringing a cold, surgical doctor rather than a Santa Claus handing out candies to those relying on cheap dollars—junk bonds and overvalued aircoins—may soon face a new reality.

Bitcoin: From "Digital Gold" to "The Fed's Whip"
For the crypto community, Warsh's nomination is an extremely complex signal—complex enough to fry algorithmic trading bots' CPUs. Many are still excited simply because Warsh understands Bitcoin; after all, compared to old-timers who don't even grasp wallet addresses, Warsh has long discussed Bitcoin's value as a "hedge against fiscal chaos." But beware: viewing Bitcoin as a "tool" and viewing it as a "faith" are separated by an entire Pacific Ocean.

In Warsh's eyes, Bitcoin isn't a totem for speculation but an expensive "canary in the coal mine." He once pointed out sharply that the soaring Bitcoin price is a market vote on the collapse of US fiscal discipline. This sounds like praise for crypto but is actually an insult to the current fiat system. This leads to an extremely paradoxical game: if Warsh truly implements his will—restoring the dollar's credibility through tough measures, tightening monetary policy, and even risking short-term recession to curb inflation and debt bubbles—then Bitcoin's core narrative as a "hedge against fiat collapse" could be severely damaged in the short term. A strong, stable, and no longer printing money dollar is Bitcoin's biggest enemy in the short run. Warsh might use Bitcoin as a dashboard to monitor fiscal policy failure, but he will never allow that dashboard to steer monetary policy.

The Endgame of Macro Battles: Trump's Patience and the Market's Sacrifice!
The most interesting part of this drama is how long Trump's honeymoon with Warsh can last. The current dollar rebound is just the appetizer; the real show will unfold at Warsh's first open market committee (FOMC) meeting after taking office. Trump needs immediate rate cuts to boost economic data for his second term, while Warsh might coldly say, "We need to be cautious," focusing on sticky inflation and asset bubbles.

This creates a perfect macro storm: on one side, the administration desperately hopes to maintain the illusion of prosperity through fiscal expansion and monetary easing; on the other, the person holding the printing press keys is a staunch traditionalist wary of moral hazard. For crypto assets and high-risk tech stocks, this is no longer just about "rising" or "falling" but a redefinition of narrative logic. In recent years, everyone was used to "bad news is good news" (because bad news meant the Fed would loosen), but in the Warsh era, bad news might truly be bad news. He could turn the Fed from a "market nanny" into a "market disciplinarian."

If you're still expecting that brainless "bullish" rally, perhaps it's time to reassess your holdings, because this time, the harvester might not be a sickle but a precise vacuum cleaner.