Regarding the current $BTC long-term outlook

Whether for defensive investors or aggressive investors, caution is advised. The current bear market rhythm is very prominent and obvious.
First, the impact of the Bitcoin halving bull market has diminished; secondly, the bull markets driven by AI, non-ferrous metals, and US tech stocks have not yet experienced a major cycle correction, and capital remains enthusiastic, which further affects the heat in the crypto space. Third, political, war, and policy factors are unfavorable to the crypto market. Fourth, most central banks, including the Federal Reserve, are not in a clearly easing phase. On the contrary, many countries' economies are sluggish, experiencing deflation in price levels and awkward stages of fiat currency issuance inflation. This further disadvantages the crypto market.
The previously mentioned possibility of Bitcoin rebounding to fill the gap may be dashed with last night's sharp decline, significantly reducing the probability of exceeding 90,000.
For short-term oversold rebounds, I see a maximum of 89,000, which is the mid-range of the oscillation zone. I personally think it can't go higher. For spot holders who haven't exited yet, cutting losses around 81,000 is not suitable; it's better to wait for a small rebound.
Regarding whether to open BTC short contracts, my view is very clear: even if you do, it should be small positions, medium to long-term for 1-2 quarters, not large positions for the short term. The margin should not exceed 20%-25% of the total position. Why? Because this is Bitcoin! This thing is one of the greatest inventions of mankind (possibly the greatest, to be known in the future), and no one can say for sure if it will suddenly go crazy and double in price. #比特币相对黄金进入深度弱势