- Data < Expectations (Positive): Inflation cools down → Increased expectation of interest rate cuts → Weakening of the USD/US Treasury yields → Capital preference for risk assets
- Data > Expectations (Negative): Sticky inflation → Delay in interest rate cut expectations → Strengthening of the USD and US Treasury yields → Decline in risk appetite → Pressure on the crypto market
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Core Impact Logic
- Data < Expectations (Positive): Inflation cools down → Increased expectation of interest rate cuts → Weakening of the USD/US Treasury yields → Capital preference for risk assets
- Data > Expectations (Negative): Sticky inflation → Delay in interest rate cut expectations → Strengthening of the USD and US Treasury yields → Decline in risk appetite → Pressure on the crypto market