The possibility of Bitcoin adjusting to $58,000, with macroeconomic deterioration as the main cause

Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently forecasted that Bitcoin could decline within the next two weeks to the $58,000 to $62,000 range. This prediction is believed to be influenced not only by technical analysis but also by the combined effects of US tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rigid interest rate stance.

Failure to Break Through the Approximately $102,300 Resistance Level Leads to Further Decline

Having traded futures for 40 years since 1975, Brandt recently issued a technical bearish signal to over 852,000 followers on X. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s key resistance zone is around $102,300, and that failure to break through this level is reinforcing the downward trend.

Brandt stated, “The target price range is $58,000 to $62,000. Even if we don’t reach this zone, I won’t regret it,” and added, “Failing 50% of the time doesn’t bother me,” showing a cautious stance on his prediction. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $88.28K, down 0.80% over the past 24 hours.

Macroeconomic Conditions Are More Important Than Charts

Market analyst and co-founder of AdLunam, Jason Fernandez, emphasized that while Brandt’s technical target is achievable, the real protagonist is the macroeconomic environment. “It’s not technical charts leading the way; macroeconomics is,” he said.

Fernandez pointed out that the Fed’s limited interest rate policies are a key risk factor. Despite US inflation falling below 2%, central banks are still maintaining a cautious stance, constraining the possibility of rate cuts. In this context, Bitcoin is “definitely recovering back to the mid-$50,000s as liquidity remains limited,” he added.

Tariff Hikes and Geopolitical Risks Could Delay Rate Cuts

Increases in tariffs or escalating geopolitical tensions could reignite inflation, further postponing rate cut schedules. Tensions centered around issues like Greenland between the US and Europe are also potential scenarios, all of which could reinforce the high interest rate environment.

Marty Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, agreed with Brandt’s probability assessment. He said, “There’s a 50-50 chance that prices will fall that much,” but also noted, “After years of Fed-led liquidity withdrawal and experiencing one of the most severe recessions in decades, the macro environment is likely to have a greater impact than a single chart pattern.”

Options Market Indicates 30% Chance of Bitcoin Below $80,000 by June

From a long-term perspective, data from decentralized exchanges and centralized options trading platform Deribit suggest that there is about a 30% probability that Bitcoin will trade below $80,000 until June. This indicates ongoing volatility and downside risk expectations in both spot and derivatives markets.

Analysts advise paying close attention to the Greenland issue, Fed policy stance, and US interest rate trends to better understand Bitcoin’s next move. While technical signals are important, in the current uncertain macroeconomic environment, these factors are likely to be key variables in determining the likelihood of a correction around the $58,000 level.