Bitcoin prediction markets see low chances of a recovery to $100,000

Source: Yellow Original Title: Bitcoin Prediction Markets See Low Chances of Recovery to $100,000

Original Link: Bitcoin (BTC) operators on prediction platforms assign less than a 10% chance that the cryptocurrency will recover to $100,000 before February.

Pessimism reflects a weak market momentum three months after Bitcoin’s October 2025 high above $126,000.

Data from Polymarket shows approximately a 6% probability of a breakout in January above six figures. Kalshi traders value the odds at less than 9% for the same period.

Bitcoin briefly touched $97,900 on January 14, but has since retreated to around $89,000. The cryptocurrency last traded above $100,000 in mid-November 2025.

What traders expect

Longer-term probabilities remain higher. Kalshi participants estimate a 54% chance that Bitcoin will surpass $100,000 before June. Polymarket shows an 88% probability that this milestone will be reached at some point in 2026.

Bearish bets have gained traction. Polymarket operators assign a 65% probability that Bitcoin will fall to $80,000 before reaching $100,000. Kalshi participants estimate a 54% chance of a bottom at $70,000 this year.

At-risk strategy

Strategy holds 709,715 Bitcoin acquired for approximately $54 billion. The company’s average cost per coin ranges between $66,000 and $76,000, according to the calculation methodology.

Polymarket shows a 75% probability that Bitcoin will trade below Strategy’s average cost during 2026. The company bought 22,305 coins last week for about $2.13 billion.

Why it matters

Moderate probabilities reflect Bitcoin’s failure to maintain momentum after its 2025 correction. The cryptocurrency fell approximately 29% from its October high, erasing gains made after the November 2024 halving event.

Traders cite macroeconomic uncertainty and weak buying pressure as headwinds. Bitcoin needs to recover resistance levels of $94,000–$96,000 before attempting another push toward the $100,000 zone.