📊 SOL/USDT 4H - Persistent Weakness, Clear Bearish Downtrend

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1. Trend Structure and Moving Average Patterns

The price has been declining unilaterally from the previous high of 142.96 USDT, entering a correction phase after finding support at 124.59 USDT. Currently, the price has dipped to the 127.88 USDT level. The short-term MA5 and MA10 are showing a death cross pattern, with the price breaking below short-term moving averages, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is temporarily dominant; medium- and long-term moving averages (MA20, MA30, MA50, MA100) remain in a bearish arrangement, with the price being suppressed by MA20 (128.92 USDT). The medium-term downward pressure persists, and the correction faces resistance and pulls back.

2. Volume-Price Relationship and Capital Flow

Recently, during the pullback phase, trading volume has decreased compared to the rebound period. The volume moving average has also turned downward, indicating reduced willingness of market funds to absorb positions, leading to short-term long positions exiting. Currently, there is no panic selling volume, suggesting selling pressure has eased, but volume has not expanded significantly. Future focus should be on the direction after consolidation with decreasing volume. If volume breaks support with an increase, the downside risk will further intensify.

3. Multi-Dimensional Technical Indicator Validation

• MACD: DIF and DEA are closely aligned below the zero axis, with the red histogram turning green and continuing to narrow, indicating short-term bullish momentum is waning, and bearish forces are regaining strength. The indicator has not yet broken above zero, remaining a sign of weakness. A trend reversal in the medium term requires the indicator to effectively break above zero and for the red histogram to continue expanding.

• RSI: The current value is 38.87, in a neutral to slightly weak zone, not entering overbought or oversold territory. Short-term pullback still has potential space, with no clear signs of momentum exhaustion. Attention should be paid to the RSI turning downward; if it encounters resistance near the 30 level and rebounds, it is likely to trigger a phase rebound.

4. Key Price Levels and Market Dynamics

Resistance Levels

1. 128.92 USDT: The MA20 acts as an immediate resistance, serving as the first key barrier for short-term rebounds. Effective breakthrough requires volume support; without volume, upward attempts are likely to encounter resistance and pull back.

2. 137.80 USDT: The MA100 acts as a core resistance for medium-term trend reversal. A volume-supported stabilization above this level would ease medium-term bearish pressure and open up further upside potential.

Support Levels

1. 128.29 USDT: The MA5 support level, also the lower boundary of recent consolidation, is an important short-term defense line for bulls. Falling below this level would weaken the correction trend, trigger short-term exits, and cause the price to revert to weakness and consolidation.

2. 124.59 USDT: The previous low and the current correction's starting point form a critical support level. A confirmed break below this level would mean the correction has failed, and the price will restart its decline.

Overall, SOL/USDT on the 4-hour chart is in a phase of resistance after oversold correction, with short-term bearish momentum slightly recovering but medium-term support still intact. The subsequent trend will mainly depend on the strength of the 128.29 USDT key support and the breakthrough of resistance levels above. Volume and price action combined will be crucial for the continuation of the trend.