"2026 Bear Market Year" Approaching? Bitcoin Bull Market Cycle May End, Experts Reveal Key Support Level

Fidelity Global Economic Research Director Jurien Timmer recently issued a warning that Bitcoin is likely to have completed another four-year cycle, and will face a prolonged correction period, with 2026 potentially becoming Bitcoin’s “Year of Correction.” This alert has attracted attention in the crypto market, especially as Bitcoin’s price has already retreated from its mid-January all-time high.

Jurien Timmer pointed out that, based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s price movements follow repeating cyclical cycles. In October this year, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of nearly $126,000, achieved after approximately 145 months of bullish trend, fully consistent with previous cycle models. Currently, Bitcoin’s price has adjusted to around $89,520, showing a clear decline from the high.

Four-Year Cycle Completed, Bitcoin Bear Market Correction May Be Starting

Jurien Timmer explained that Bitcoin’s bear market corrections typically last about a year. Given that the most recent halving cycle has concluded, he believes 2026 could be a year of consolidation and adjustment for Bitcoin. He stated that while he remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin, from a price and timing perspective, Bitcoin has likely completed another four-year halving cycle, which indicates that the risks of a bear market correction should not be underestimated.

This argument is based on the observation of historical cycles: Bitcoin experiences a halving event approximately every four years, often marking the turning point between bull and bear markets. From the pattern of multiple bull-bear transitions, the current cycle is “highly consistent” with past regularities.

Technical Warning: Key Support Level at $65K-$75K Range

In technical analysis, Jurien Timmer pointed out that the key support zone below Bitcoin is roughly between $65,000 and $75,000. This means that if Bitcoin enters a bear market correction, the support line will be in this range. The current price of $89,500 still has considerable downside potential toward this support zone, which is a critical technical level for market participants to monitor closely.

From a technical perspective, the retreat from the all-time high of $126,000 confirms signals of cycle transition. The support level is set based on historical cycle patterns and technical chart analysis, providing risk management reference for investors.

Gold’s Strong Surge Outperforms Bitcoin in Bullish Momentum

Contrasting sharply with the expected correction in Bitcoin, gold has recently demonstrated strong bullish characteristics. Jurien Timmer stated that since 2025, gold has outperformed Bitcoin, with an accumulated increase of about 65%, surpassing the growth rate of global money supply, and maintaining most of its gains during recent market corrections, showcasing typical bullish market features.

He further pointed out that in the short term, there is no expectation of a “mean reversion” (price returning to long-term average levels) between gold and Bitcoin. Gold is currently in an independent bullish trend, which sharply contrasts with the expectation of Bitcoin facing a bear market correction.

This comparison highlights the different performances of assets within the current cycle: gold continues its bullish momentum, while Bitcoin may enter a bear market consolidation phase. For investors, understanding this cyclical divergence is crucial.