Adler Jr. Focuses on Bitcoin RSI Signal, Standing at the Crossroads of a Bear Market

Recent technical analysis presented by CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. has attracted market attention. According to Adler Jr.'s analysis, Bitcoin is currently at a significant technical turning point, and the next 1-2 months are a critical period that could determine the market’s direction.

Price Correction Trend and Technical Indicator Discrepancy

As of the end of 2025, Bitcoin has experienced a substantial price correction. Over the past three months, it has declined by approximately 19.7%(, reaching around $21,500), and compared to the beginning of the year, it has fallen by 10.5%(, down to about $10,400). In the short term, it has maintained relative stability with a weekly increase of 1.5% and a monthly decrease of 0.5%, but this is interpreted more as a pause within a correction process rather than a sign of rebound.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is moving in the $90.41K range, with the monthly RSI at 56.5. This is not just a simple number. It is the first time the RSI has fallen below the 67.3 12-month moving average, and it is only 2 points above the 58.7 4-year moving average.

The Historical Significance of RSI and Moving Average Crossings

What does this phenomenon mean from a technical analysis perspective? Adler Jr. explained that historical data shows that when RSI drops below the 4-year moving average, it generally indicates a higher likelihood of a deeper downtrend. This goes beyond a simple technical signal, representing an important turning point in market sentiment.

The monthly RSI of 56.5 remains in the neutral zone(50~70), but it is significant that it has fallen below the 12-month average for the first time. If investors judge based on past patterns, this could serve as a warning signal.

Future Scenarios Proposed by Adler Jr.

Adler Jr. outlined the following potential future price movements:

Recovery Scenario: If RSI remains stably between 55 and 58, there is a strong possibility that Bitcoin will resume an upward trend.

Risk Scenario: Conversely, if RSI continues to stay below 55, the probability of a deeper downtrend increases. In this case, the market could exit the correction phase and enter a full-fledged bear market.

Critical Thresholds for Investors to Watch

At this point, the most important task is to carefully monitor the movement of RSI. The range of 55~58 acts as a critical threshold separating recovery from deterioration.

What Adler Jr.'s analysis emphasizes is that the next 1~2 months are a decisive period for determining whether the market remains in a correction phase or plunges into a more severe bearish trend. It is necessary to observe not only technical indicators but also the overall market momentum changes comprehensively.