Holiday Shopping Surge: U.S. Retail Sales Beat Forecasts with 0.6 Percent Growth in November

U.S. consumer spending delivered a stronger-than-expected performance last month, with retail sales rising 0.6 percent in November—outpacing economist predictions of 0.4 percent growth. The Commerce Department’s Wednesday report showed a notable turnaround from October’s modest 0.1 percent decline, signaling robust holiday season momentum for the retail sector.

The Numbers Behind the Rebound

The headline figure masks a tale of two Americas. Motor vehicle and parts dealers led the charge, with sales spiking 1.0 percent after the prior month’s sharp 1.6 percent drop. This rebound alone accounted for much of the monthly strength, as core retail sales excluding auto purchases climbed a more modest 0.5 percent versus economist expectations of 0.4 percent.

Beyond automotive showrooms, strength scattered across other channels. Sporting goods retailers, hobby shops, book sellers, and miscellaneous store operators all posted gains. Gas stations and building material dealers also contributed positively to the November total. However, department store sales painted a starkly different picture, collapsing 2.9 percent after October’s exceptional 4.9 percent jump, indicating volatility in traditional brick-and-mortar retail.

The Affluent Consumer Driving Growth

Oxford Economics Chief U.S. Economist Michael Pearce framed the data with important nuance: “The strong gain in retail sales in November supports our forecast that this holiday season was a solid one for retailers, with the volume of holiday retail sales rising by the strongest since 2021.” Yet he cautioned that gains rest on precarious ground—wealth-driven spending by higher-income households rather than broad-based consumer strength.

Core retail sales, which strip out automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services to reveal underlying consumer discretion, increased 0.4 percent in November following a 0.6 percent rise in October. This metric suggests underlying consumer resilience remains more fragile than headline figures suggest.

The November data captures an inflection point: retailers achieved the holiday season gains they needed, but the foundation supporting those gains—concentrated spending by affluent consumers capitalizing on recent wealth appreciation—raises questions about the durability of retail momentum heading into 2024.