CSX Q4 Earnings Release Looms: Navigating the Headwinds of Operational Challenges and Cost Constraints

CSX Corporation is set to announce its fourth-quarter 2025 financial results on January 22 after trading hours conclude. The company faces a challenging earnings backdrop, with analyst projections indicating headwinds that may pressure both profitability and revenue generation.

The Numbers: What Wall Street Is Bracing For

The Zacks Consensus Estimate has moved downward by 2.3% over the past 60 days, now standing at 42 cents per share for fourth-quarter 2025 earnings—matching the prior-year quarter’s actual performance. Revenue expectations are pegged at $3.6 billion, representing a modest 0.5% uptick from fourth-quarter 2024.

CSX carries a mixed track record when it comes to earnings surprises. Across the last four quarters, the railroad operator has lagged consensus estimates twice and exceeded them in the other two quarters, with an average miss of 0.23%—a pattern that underscores the difficulty in predicting near-term results.

Structural Headwinds Constraining Performance

Several interconnected pressures are expected to weigh on CSX’s fourth-quarter results. The railroad has grappled with a pronounced downfall in coal revenues, now estimated at $490 million—a 1.8% decline from year-ago levels. This contraction reflects broader energy sector softness and reduced demand for coal transportation.

The Agriculture & Food Products segment presents another downfall in performance, with projections suggesting $408 million in revenues, a 3% decrease year-over-year. Merchandise volumes remain subdued, while fuel surcharge recoveries have diminished.

Operational friction has become increasingly evident. Locomotive and crew shortages continue to constrain service delivery, with supply-chain disruptions limiting the company’s ability to move freight efficiently. These service vulnerabilities have pressured shipment volumes and operational efficiency throughout the quarter.

The Model’s Outlook: Cautionary Signals

The company’s Earnings Surprise Predictor (ESP) registers at -4.99%, coupled with a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) rating. This combination suggests that consensus expectations may already incorporate most available information, leaving limited room for upside surprises. Investors accustomed to robust earnings beats may find this earnings season particularly challenging for CSX.

Q3 Snapshot: Mixed Results Foreshadowing Q4 Challenges

CSX’s third-quarter performance provided early signals of current challenges. Adjusted earnings per share reached 44 cents, besting the 42-cent consensus by 2 cents. However, this represented a 4.3% year-over-year decline. Total revenues of $3.59 billion narrowly missed expectations and contracted 1% annually—a trend that appears to be persisting.

Transportation Sector Peers With Brighter Near-Term Prospects

Within the broader transportation industry, alternative plays present more optimistic prediction models:

Canadian National Railway (CNI) shows stronger positioning, with an Earnings Surprise Predictor of +1.20% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). CNI is scheduled to report its Q4 2025 results on January 30. The earnings consensus remains stable at $1.42 per share, while the company has demonstrated relative consistency, beating expectations in two of the past four quarters.

United Parcel Service (UPS) presents the most compelling setup, with an Earnings Surprise Predictor of +1.72% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). UPS will report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on January 27, with consensus estimates revised 2.29% upward over the past 60 days. The logistics giant has impressed investors with three earnings beats in the preceding four quarters, averaging a 11.2% outperformance relative to expectations.

For investors monitoring the transportation space, CSX’s earnings announcement will serve as a critical data point regarding broader freight market conditions, while UPS and CNI may offer more constructive risk-reward profiles for the current quarter.