The Sui enigma: A massive unlock of $80 million at the breaking point

The Sui blockchain network is going through a critical moment. With accumulated declines of 63.9% in this market phase, the asset is currently trading at $1.53 after facing sustained selling pressure. What complicates the outlook further is the imminent event: the release of $80.41 million in tokens that could redefine the next price movement.

A Unlock That Shakes the Market

Sui’s token unlock data paint a potentially turbulent picture. The volume to be released represents 1.11% of the total supply and 1.48% of the circulating float, according to DeFiLlama. To gauge the impact: the initial contributors will receive approximately $12.58 million of this total, a group historically inclined to monetize their positions, especially when market sentiment shows vulnerability.

The dynamics are clear: an influx of supply of this magnitude typically generates downward pressure. The price could fall below $1.41 if multiple sellers converge. Although Sui gained 3.45% in the last 24 hours, this recovery is accompanied by a concerning data point: trading volume fell 8.99% to $291.41 million. Price increases with declining volume often translate into a bullish move lacking conviction.

The Silent Withdrawal of Investors

CoinGlass data reveal a change in behavior among spot investors. Net outflows totaled $5 million in just 48 hours, with the peak of sales recorded on December 27, marking the first significant exit in over a week. This abrupt shift reflects growing caution regarding the asset’s medium-term prospects.

From a technical analysis perspective, Sui is trading in a critical resistance zone. Breaking this level would open the door to $3.1, the last recorded price on October 6 before the cascade of liquidations. Conversely, a downward break could extend the move toward $1. The next move will depend on who controls the market in the coming hours: buyers or sellers.

Bullish Signals Persist in the Shadows

Contrary to the overall bearish sentiment, certain on-chain indicators keep bullish hopes alive. The TVL (total value locked) rebounded to $922.25 million, with fresh inflows of $24.8 million during the analyzed period. This capital influx suggests that some players are aiming for a short-term recovery.

In the derivatives markets, SUI/USDT perpetual traders are positioned bullish. CoinGlass reports a coordinated increase in long position volumes along with expanding positive funding rates, indicating a growing dominance of buyers in open positions.

The Next Act

Sui is in a critical range configuration. The token unlock acts as a risk catalyst, while buyers are building positions. If the bearish bias prevails, the additional supply will likely exert sustained pressure. If the bulls take control, the $80 million released could be absorbed smoothly. The market will decide how this story ends in the coming days.