The global market closes 2025: Gold prices hit record highs, oil plunges, US stocks surge

2025 is coming to an end with impressive figures in the global financial markets. While most major markets are entering the New Year holiday, the year’s final data has painted a clear picture of the strengths and weaknesses of key asset classes.

Gold shines, silver hits new record

It was the year of precious metals. Gold finished 2025 with nearly 64% gains, becoming the best year since 1979 — the most remarkable in nearly half a century. Although the final session saw a slight correction, this rally was enough to make gold the focus of investors.

But the real highlight was silver, which soared 147% for the year, setting a historic record. Platinum also performed strongly with over 122% increase, while palladium surged 75%, the highest in 15 years. These figures reflect a significant shift in market sentiment, where investors are seeking safe havens.

Currently, spot gold closed at $4,318.67/ounce after a slight 0.6% decline, silver dropped to $71.36(down 6.7%), platinum at $2,006.95(down 8.7%). Experts forecast gold could reach $5,000/ounce in 2026, and silver has a chance to surpass $100.

This explosion was driven by a combination of factors: the Fed continuously cutting interest rates, global geopolitical tensions, central banks increasing gold purchases, and large capital flows into gold ETFs. Notably, silver was supported by structural supply shortages, with inventories at historic lows, and a surge in industrial demand.

Oil plunges, Q1 2026 to continue declining

The opposite story is oil. In 2025, oil prices fell nearly 20%, the sharpest decline since 2020. Brent crude closed at $60.85/barrel(down 0.8%), US crude at $57.42/barrel(down 0.9%). Notably, Brent has declined for three consecutive years, the longest streak since data records began.

Global oversupply remains the main factor, despite geopolitical events and sanctions. Venezuela, which holds one of the world’s largest oil reserves, has seen crude output in the Orinoco region drop 25% to 498,131 barrels/day in just the past two weeks.

However, US shale producers have hedged at high prices, helping maintain their production levels. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) shows US oil output in October reached a historic high, while gasoline and distillate inventories last week increased more than forecast.

Looking into 2026, organizations forecast oil may continue to decline in Q1, but then gradually stabilize and recover to $60 per barrel in the second half of the year. The market is currently focused on global supply-demand balance, OPEC+ production policies, and geopolitical risks in major exporting countries.

US stocks: Surge after year-end worries

Although the final trading session of 2025 saw slight corrections, the three major indices completed an impressive year. Dow Jones fell 0.63%, S&P 500 down 0.74%, Nasdaq down 0.76% in the last session, but all three posted double-digit gains for the year, continuing a three-year winning streak.

The AI stock group was the brightest star. Nvidia soared 39% for the year, becoming the first publicly listed company to surpass a $5 trillion market cap. The media services group, boosted by Alphabet’s 65% increase, became the best-performing sector in the S&P 500.

Year-end profit-taking pressure emerged, with energy and technology sectors experiencing the strongest sell-offs. However, analysts believe recent corrections are normal volatility and do not change the optimistic outlook for 2026. Market breadth is expected to continue expanding, as investment opportunities spread from a few large tech companies to many sectors and global markets.

Investors currently expect the Fed to continue easing monetary policy under the new administration’s moderate approach. Notably, Nike rose 4% against the market in the last session after their CEO started buying shares worth millions of dollars.

USD weakens sharply, euro breaks 13%

2025 was an unprecedented year of USD weakness, declining over 9% for the year, the largest drop since 2017. Although strong employment data in the final session helped the USD recover 0.27% to 98.50, it was not enough to offset the poor year.

The prolonged rate-cut cycle, US fiscal concerns, and trade policy uncertainties caused the USD to sell off. Conversely, the euro surged 13%, the British pound rose over 7% against the USD. The Swiss franc increased 14%, and the Swedish krona gained 20%, reflecting a strong shift in forex market sentiment.

The Japanese yen remained nearly flat against the USD, closing at 156.96, despite the Bank of Japan raising interest rates twice this year. The market still warns of potential intervention by Japanese authorities.

Forecasts for 2026 largely agree that the USD’s weakness trend will continue, though some believe the USD’s decline cycle is nearing its end. The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates by about 50 basis points, but recent statements from some new Fed officials have been cautious about further easing. If the labor market continues to improve, the Fed may hold rates longer than expected.

US labor market: Positive signals at year-end

US initial jobless claims for the week ending 27/12 fell to 199,000, below economists’ forecast of 220,000. This is one of the lowest levels of 2025, reflecting normal holiday volatility.

Recent data has fluctuated significantly due to the holiday period, including Christmas and the two new federal holidays (24/12 and 26/12). The number of people receiving unemployment benefits dropped to 1.87 million last week, indicating the labor market remains healthy.

International developments: Entry bans, Venezuela oil restrictions

Starting 1/1, citizens of seven countries including Burkina Faso, Laos, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, South Sudan, and Syria are banned from entering the US, according to new guidelines from the US Customs and Border Protection. The ban applies to both immigrants and non-immigrants. The US also imposes travel restrictions on citizens of Venezuela and Cuba.

Regarding Venezuela, crude oil production in the Orinoco region, which produces heavy and extra-heavy oil accounting for about two-thirds of total output, has sharply declined. Due to tensions and US pressure, Venezuela’s oil company has begun shutting some wells because of limited storage capacity and disrupted export schedules.

Bulgaria officially joined the Eurozone on 1/1/2026, adopting the euro as its official currency replacing the current domestic currency. Bulgaria has been a member of the EU since 2007, and joining the Eurozone has been a top policy priority for its government for over a decade.

The US Department of Agriculture announced a $12 billion agricultural relief package, including a $30.88/acre subsidy for soybean farmers. Eligible farmers are expected to receive payments before 28/2.

Advances in energy and technology sectors

China completed a historic year in space. In 2025, the country launched over 90 missions, breaking its annual launch record. China Academy of Space Technology completed 73 launches. The Long March rocket family conducted 69 launches, and the Jielong 3 rocket performed 4 launches, deploying over 300 satellites. The average launch cycle was about 5 days, reaching a record high.

In nuclear energy, Unit 2 of the Hualong One nuclear power plant in Zhangzhou officially entered commercial operation at 00:07 on 1/1, marking the completion of Phase 1 of the project. The Zhangzhou plant is planned to have 6 units, with two in Phase 1 already operational, each providing about 20 billion kWh of clean electricity annually, reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 16 million tons.

Regarding natural gas, China Southwest Petroleum has built the first 50 billion m³ natural gas zone in Southwest China. The company’s annual natural gas production reached 50 billion m³, a net increase of 5.3 billion m³ compared to 2024. Gas equivalent production exceeded 40 million tons, reaching record highs.

Chinese stock market: Signs of weakening

At the end of November 2025, the Shanghai Composite index closed at 3,888.6 points, down 66.2 points from the previous month (down 1.7%). The Shenzhen Component closed at 12,984.1 points, down 394.1 points (down 2.9%).

In November, the average daily trading value on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 808.05 billion RMB, down 16% from the previous month. On the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the average daily trading value was 1,089.77 billion RMB, down 7.9% month-on-month. These figures reflect market pressure on China’s stock markets during this period.