Arthur Hayes' new paper has gone viral! The well-known analyst in the crypto market recently made a bold prediction, sparking widespread discussion in the industry.

In his latest research, he pointed out that as we approach 2026, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will enter a new cycle of expansion. What is the logic behind this? Hayes believes that the expansion of the central bank's balance sheet is often accompanied by an increase in bank system loans—meaning more liquidity flooding into the market. Meanwhile, mortgage rates are also expected to decline, further stimulating borrowing demand.

**Chain reaction of USD liquidity expansion**

Under this framework, the continuous expansion of USD liquidity will likely become a high-probability event. According to Arthur Hayes' analysis, an improved liquidity environment usually drives risk assets higher—Bitcoin, being one of the most liquidity-sensitive assets, will naturally benefit from this.

In simple terms, this is a causal chain of "more money → lower interest rates → increased risk appetite → rising crypto assets." Historically, whenever USD liquidity is abundant, Bitcoin tends to experience a phased rally.

**How the market interprets this prediction**

Of course, no market forecast is absolute. But as a seasoned macro analyst, Arthur Hayes' grasp of liquidity cycles has always been highly regarded. His prediction for 2026 at least offers market participants a new perspective—it's not just about the technicals of Bitcoin itself, but also about paying attention to changes in the macro liquidity environment.