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I started closing positions on Friday, and I escaped quite quickly this time (no hindsight bias).
1. I'm not sure if there will be a quick strike on Iran over the weekend (at the time, the probability of a strike on Iran on 18/17 on Polymarket was 57%, so I didn't dare to bet).
2. There's no real need to gamble for another 2000 points on BTC here (I see 98k as the end of the rebound). There are definitely insider bets, emotional bets, and some people rushing to get ahead.
3. I mentioned a week ago that sector rotation would be very obvious over the weekend, culminating in the last move (which is the meme altcoins). Yesterday, it was also rare to see $1 quickly pass 10M.
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